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MORE LIKE FALL: The SKYCAM site at Cheaha State Park, in East Alabama’s Cleburne County, reports 64 degrees at 2:30 this afternoon. I don’t know if I can recall an afternoon temperature that cool in mid-August on my watch over the last 35 years. Birmingham reports 77 degrees at 3:00… that is right at our record low maximum for August 15. We do note a few low 80s over on the western side of the state, where sunshine is in better supply. There are a few showers and patches of light rain on radar over Central and East Alabama, but nothing widespread or heavy.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: The good news is that we don’t any widespread or excessive rain around here on these three days. Understand there will be a chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, but they should be rather spotty, and there will be some good intervals of sunshine. The really deep moisture axis will stay east of Alabama, with some heavy rain possible from the Gulf Coast up through parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. The tropical system in the southern Gulf won’t be a factor here. Temperatures stay below average, with daily highs in the 82-86 degree range. Best chance of a passing shower will come during the afternoon and evening, but we can’t totally rule out a late night or morning shower in spots.
NEXT WEEK: An upper high will build north of here, so afternoons should be warmer, with daily highs rising into the upper 80s; some places might touch 90 degrees by mid-week. There will be enough moisture for a few widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers, but widespread rain doesn’t look likely for now, and the sky should be partly sunny each day.
TROPICAL WEATHER: Tropical Storm Erin, in the far East Atlantic, will be fighting very dry air as it moves west/northwest in coming days over the open Atlantic. It is expected to remain a tropical storm, and it remains to be seen if this will recurve over the open Atlantic, or impact the Lesser Antilles. And, there is a chance it might not survive the journey due to the dry air.
The tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula and the far southern Gulf of Mexico remains disorganized. Harsh upper winds over the Gulf of Mexico suggest this might have a hard time getting it’s act together; if anything does develop it seems like it will move west, toward Mexico or South Texas. The main impact there will be heavy rain and the threat of flooding.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Only a limited amount of sunshine for the area from Panama City over to Gulf Shores through Sunday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The rain will be heavy in spots; highs will be in the 80s, and sea water temperatures are generally in the mid 80s. Sunshine should be plentiful along the Gulf Coast next week.
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