I thought this was an excellent drought update from our friends at the HUN NWS office… and I thought I would pass it along here…
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
…HISTORIC DROUGHT CONTINUES…
…POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE HEAT AND DRY PATTERN NEXT WEEK…
SYNOPSIS…
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR…ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE IN THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CATEGORY
/D4/. THIS IS THE WORST OF THE FIVE-LEVEL CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM USED
BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR…AND INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST A
ONCE-IN-FIFTY YEAR DROUGHT.
A STATE-DECLARED DROUGHT EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR MOST OF ALABAMA.
THE DROUGHT EMERGENCY INCLUDES ALL ELEVEN ALABAMA COUNTIES IN THE
HUNTSVILLE COVERAGE AREA…AND MARKS THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF STATE
DROUGHT ACTION AND SUPPORT WITHIN THE STATE OF ALABAMA.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS…
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS:
AREA STREAMFLOWS REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR…AND CONTINUE TO FALL. THE FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO HAS
SET A RECORD LOW RIVER DISCHARGE. THE CURRENT DISCHARGE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WAS 50 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND…BREAKING THE RECORD OF 76
CUBIC FEET PER SECOND SET IN 2000.
AREA LAKE LEVELS HAVE RESUMED THEIR FALL WHICH HAD BEEN OCCURRING
MOST OF THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. IT IS NOT ABNORMAL FOR LAKE
LEVELS TO BE DROPPING THIS TIME OF YEAR…HOWEVER THEY USUALLY DROP
FROM A MUCH HIGHER LEVEL THAN IS OCCURRING THIS YEAR. SOME TRIBUTARY
LAKES ARE ALREADY AT WINTER POOL. AT THIS TIME…THERE ARE NO
PROBLEMS ON THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN NORTH ALABAMA.
LAKE NAME CURRENT STATUS
—————————————————–
BEAR CREEK LAKE 6.4 FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL
LITTLE BEAR CREEK LAKE 4.5 FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL
CEDAR CREEK LAKE 6.9 FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL
TIMS FORD LAKE 7.8 FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL
NICKAJACK LAKE WITHIN NORMAL RANGE
GUNTERSVILLE LAKE WITHIN NORMAL RANGE
WHEELER LAKE 0.5 FOOT BELOW NORMAL RANGE
WILSON LAKE WITHIN NORMAL RANGE
PICKWICK LAKE WITHIN NORMAL RANGE
LEWIS SMITH LAKE HISTORIC LOWS…6 FEET BELOW AVERAGE
MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE NOW BEING IMPOSED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS OFTEN REQUIRE WATERING ON CERTAIN DAYS
AND AT CERTAIN TIMES…AND FINES COULD BE IMPOSED FOR VIOLATIONS.
MOST LOCAL WATER SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO ASK CUSTOMERS TO VOLUNTARILY
CONSERVE WATER…OR TO VOLUNTARILY RESTRICT SOME WATER USES TO
CERTAIN DAYS OR AT CERTAIN TIMES. WITH THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE AND DRY
CONDITIONS…WATER DEMAND HAS INCREASED. IN SOME SPOTS…THE DEMAND
IS NOW OUTPACING SUPPLY.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:
ALL 67 ALABAMA COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DECLARED NATURAL DISASTER AREAS BY
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE
DECLARATION MAKES FARMERS ELIGIBLE FOR LOW-INTEREST EMERGENCY LOANS
FROM THE FARM SERVICE AGENCY IF ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS ARE MET.
INTERESTED FARMERS MAY CONTACT THEIR LOCAL USDA SERVICE CENTERS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL.
SOIL MOISTURE RANGES FROM THE 1ST PERCENTILE OR BELOW EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65…TO AS HIGH AS BETWEEN THE 5TH AND 10TH PERCENTILE
ALONG THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI BORDER. THE SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA ARE DETERIORATING AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAS LED TO
SIGNIFICANT STRESS ON CROPS. EVEN THE COTTON CROP…WHICH HAD BEEN
IN DECENT SHAPE BECAUSE OF THE RAINFALL IN JULY…IS NOW
DETERIORATING RAPIDLY. THE CORN CROP HAS NO CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT
AND SOYBEANS REMAIN IN POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITION. LATE PLANTED
SOYBEANS COULD FAIR BETTER WITH LATE SEASON RAINFALL. PASTURE
CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST WEEK.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:
THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A DROUGHT EMERGENCY…
OR NO BURN ORDER…FOR MOST OF ALABAMA INCLUDING THE COUNTIES SERVED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE. THIS PROHIBITS FIRES
OF ANY KIND DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS…WHICH HAVE CREATED AN
ATMOSPHERE WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF CATASTROPHIC FIRE ACTIVITY IS
HIGH.
THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX /KBDI/ IS OVER 700 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA…AND ABOVE 600 EVERYWHERE. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF EXTREME
DROUGHT AND OF FIRE DANGER. ANY VALUES ABOVE 500 ARE CONSIDERED
CRITICAL TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRECIPITATION AND CLIMATE SUMMARY…
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND BROUGHT AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN TO
SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER…FOR MOST…THIS IS THE ONLY RAIN SEEN ALL
MONTH. ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS ARE LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
THE MONTH-TO-DATE…WITH MANY STILL BELOW 5 PERCENT OF NORMAL. A
NOAA AUTOMATED STATION IN COURTLAND HAS YET TO RECORD ANY RAINFALL
THIS MONTH…AND IT IS NOT THE ONLY SITE WITH NO RAIN.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS IS THE DRIEST MULTI-YEAR PERIOD IN
HUNTSVILLE SINCE 1941. THE LAST TIME WE HAD THREE CONSECUTIVE VERY
DRY CALENDAR YEARS WAS DURING THE PERIOD 1913 THROUGH 1915…WHEN A
TOTAL OF 118.75 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. BY COMPARISON…FROM 2005 TO
PRESENT…100.09 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT HUNTSVILLE.
FIVE DRIEST CALENDAR-YEARS-TO-DATE…ENDING AUGUST 22ND 2007:
HUNTSVILLE:
1ST…17.35 / 2007
2ND…19.83 / 1925
3RD…20.29 / 1902
4TH…21.33 / 1914
5TH…23.84 / 1988
MUSCLE SHOALS:
1ST…19.47 / 1988
2ND…20.26 / 2007
3RD…20.66 / 1941
4TH…21.09 / 1987
5TH…21.82 / 1943
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL DEFICITS:
/THESE DATA WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON OR BEFORE MONDAY/
HUNTSVILLE…THROUGH AUGUST 20:
AUGUST 2007 … 0.86 INCH … DEFICIT 1.23 INCH
SINCE JUNE 1 … 6.83 INCHES … DEFICIT 3.88 INCHES
SINCE MARCH 1 … 12.01 INCHES … DEFICIT 15.16 INCHES
YEAR-TO-DATE … 17.35 INCHES … DEFICIT 20.29 INCHES
SINCE JAN 2006… 59.94 INCHES … DEFICIT 35.21 INCHES
SINCE JAN 2005…100.09 INCHES … DEFICIT 52.57 INCHES
MUSCLE SHOALS…THROUGH AUGUST 20:
AUGUST 2007 … 0.65 INCH … DEFICIT 1.19 INCH
SINCE JUNE 1 … 10.19 INCHES … DEFICIT 1.07 INCH
SINCE MARCH 1 … 15.64 INCHES … DEFICIT 11.56 INCHES
YEAR-TO-DATE … 20.26 INCHES … DEFICIT 16.37 INCHES
SINCE JAN 2006… 70.09 INCHES … DEFICIT 22.34 INCHES
SINCE JAN 2005…111.20 INCHES … DEFICIT 37.03 INCHES
WINCHESTER…THROUGH AUGUST 20:
AUGUST 2007 … 0.01 INCH … DEFICIT 1.51 INCH
SINCE JUNE 1 … 6.12 INCHES … DEFICIT 4.10 INCHES
SINCE MARCH 1 … 12.23 INCHES … DEFICIT 13.74 INCHES
YEAR-TO-DATE … 16.16 INCHES … DEFICIT 19.21 INCHES
SINCE JAN 2006… 58.61 INCHES … DEFICIT 31.02 INCHES
SINCE JAN 2005…102.30 INCHES … DEFICIT 41.59 INCHES
CULLMAN…THROUGH AUGUST 20:
AUGUST 2007 … 0.92 INCH … DEFICIT 1.10 INCH
SINCE JUNE 1 … 5.14 INCHES … DEFICIT 6.17 INCHES
SINCE MAY 1 … 5.69 INCHES … DEFICIT 10.75 INCHES
SINCE MARCH 1 … 11.09 INCHES … DEFICIT 15.97 INCHES
YEAR-TO-DATE … 17.32 INCHES … DEFICIT 22.15 INCHES
SINCE JAN 2006… 73.25 INCHES … DEFICIT 26.18 INCHES
SINCE JAN 2005…125.85 INCHES … DEFICIT 33.54 INCHES
OUTLOOK…
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY AS THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR THE DROUGHT
OVERALL…IT AT LEAST WILL HELP PROVIDE RAIN AND LESSEN THE HEAT.
THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO…THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5TH…CALLS FOR NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER…REMEMBER AUGUST IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
THE DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA…SO NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL IS ONLY ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH FOR ONE WEEK.
THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NOVEMBER CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST SEASONAL
DROUGHT OUTLOOK…ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER…CALLS
FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER.
HOWEVER…THIS FORECAST FOR IMPROVEMENT DOES NOT IMPLY AN END TO THE
DROUGHT.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE…
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED EARLY MONDAY MORNING…AUGUST 27TH.
UPDATES WILL OCCUR SOONER IF ANY CONDITIONS DEPICTED IN THIS OUTLOOK
CHANGE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…
SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS PROVIDED BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF AGRICULTURE…COUNTY EXTENSION AGENTS…THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY…THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY…AND THE STATE OF ALABAMA.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR OTHER HYDROLOGIC OR DROUGHT INFORMATION…
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE /ALL LOWER CASE/.
MEDIA INQUIRIES REGARDING THIS HISTORIC DROUGHT MAY BE MADE BY
CALLING 256-890-8503…OR BY EMAILING [email protected].
$$
ELLIOTT
