HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1040 AM CDT THU NOV 29 2007
…DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SYNOPSIS…
A STORM SYSTEM LATE LAST WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND BROUGHT SOME MUCH
NEEDED AND WELCOMED RAINFALL TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEHIND THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PREVAILED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CURRENT WEEK. BUT DESPITE THE RECENT RAINFALL…SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM LAST WEEK…WITH
THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR ARLEY
TO BERRY TO NEAR MARION TO LOWNDESBORO TO CLAYTON. SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA AS FAR AS A
LINE FROM NEAR HAMILTON TO GAINESVILLE TO DIXONS MILL. AREAS TO THE
WEST OF THIS IN EXTREME WEST ALABAMA CONTINUE IN MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN ONE OF
THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:
1) ABNORMALLY DRY
2) MODERATE
3) SEVERE
4) EXTREME
5) EXCEPTIONAL
LATE LAST WEEK THROUGH THIS PAST MONDAY SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGED BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE SOUTHERN HALF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE AND
ONE HALF TO THREE INCHES…WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS…WERE THE
RULE. THIS RAINFALL PROVIDED SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS…BUT IS FAR FROM WHAT IS NEEDED TO PRODUCE
SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT. RAINFALL SO FAR IN NOVEMBER HAS AVERAGED
BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA…WITH LOCALIZED
TOTALS TO AROUND FOUR AND A HALF INCHES. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR
NOVEMBER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AVERAGES BETWEEN FOUR AND FIVE
INCHES.
SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JANUARY 1ST THROUGH
NOVEMBER 28TH:
BIRMINGHAM 26.92
MONTGOMERY 34.02
ANNISTON 19.07
TUSCALOOSA 23.50
CALERA 29.80
TROY 37.39
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM
JANUARY 1ST THROUGH NOVEMBER 28TH:
BIRMINGHAM 49.21 DOWN 22.29
MONTGOMERY 49.46 DOWN 15.44
ANNISTON 47.54 DOWN 28.47
TUSCALOOSA 51.94 DOWN 28.44
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS…
SOIL MOISTURE DEPARTURES IMPROVED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST
WEEK…DUE TO OUR RECENT RAINFALL. AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM NEAR ONEONTA TO DADEVILLE TO ROANOKE WERE IN THE 10 TO 30
PERCENTILE OF NORMAL RANGE. WITHIN THIS AREA…PLACES SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO MONTGOMERY HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY
INTO THE 30 TO 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. REMAINING AREAS IN
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINED BELOW 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
SERIOUS AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS CONTINUE. ACCORDING TO THE USDA…
RAINFALL HAS COME TOO LATE TO HELP MANY CROPS THAT WERE ALREADY
PLANTED OR BEING HARVESTED.
OVERALL…COTTON YIELDS HAVE BEEN POOR THIS YEAR. PASTURE
CONDITIONS AND LIVESTOCK REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH THE
MAJORITY REPORTED IN VERY POOR OR POOR CONDITION. THE DRY WEATHER
HAS ALSO HAMPERED THE PLANTING OF WINTER CROPS DUE TO VERY DRY AND
HARD SOILS…ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL HAS ENCOURAGED SOME FARMERS TO
BEGIN PLANTING WINTER CROPS. ON A SOMEWHAT BRIGHTER NOTE…A FAIRLY
LARGE PECAN CROP WAS BEING HARVESTED ACROSS THE STATE.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS…
THE FIRE DANGER RISK REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)…REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
500 TO 600 RANGE NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR LIVINGSTON TO CLANTON TO
ROANOKE. THIS INDICATES A HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES. SOUTH OF THIS
LINE…HOWEVER…INDICES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 200 TO 500
RANGE…WHICH INDICATES A SOMEWHAT LOWER FIRE DANGER DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL.
THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTS THAT NO COUNTIES ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER A FIRE ALERT.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS…
STREAMFLOWS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST WEEK…DUE TO THE
RECENT RAINFALL. ABOUT FORTY PERCENT OF REPORTING UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY STREAM GAGES ARE NOW REPORTING NORMAL FLOWS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR…BUT ABOUT THIRTY PERCENT ARE STILL REPORTING
MUCH BELOW NORMAL FLOWS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE TO MAINTAIN OR IMPROVE THE CURRENT STREAMFLOWS.
ALTHOUGH THE PAST WEEKS RAIN PRODUCED SOME VERY MINOR RISES ON AREA
RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS…MOST CONTINUE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH SERIOUS
NEGATIVE IMPACTS CONTINUING. MANY POOL LEVELS IN MAJOR RESERVOIRS
ARE BELOW NORMAL WINTER POOL LEVELS…WITH SOME NEAR OR AT RECORD
LOW LEVELS. IT WILL TAKE FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL TO RETURN
MOST OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS TO NORMAL WINTER POOL LEVELS. SOME OF
THE MOST SERIOUS IMPACTS CONTINUE ON THE COOSA AND TALLAPOOSA
RIVERS. NAVIGATION ON THE ALABAMA RIVER BELOW MONTGOMERY CONTINUES
TO BE IMPACTED BY LOW RIVER STAGES. GRADUAL DECREASES IN RIVER AND
LAKE LEVELS WILL BEGIN AGAIN IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR.
SOCIAL IMPACTS…
STRESS ON LAWNS…YARD SHRUBBERY AND PLANTS HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO
RECENT COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODIC RAINFALL. HOWEVER…THE THREAT
OF WATER SHORTAGES FOR MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEMS PERSISTS. MOST WATER
RESTRICTIONS ALREADY IN PLACE CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT
THIS TIME…IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ALMOST HALF OF THE STATE’S
POPULATION IS UNDER SOME FORM OF WATER RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK…
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. A DRY
AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER…ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL…ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY GREAT AT THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST…FOR DECEMBER 4TH THROUGH DECEMBER
12TH…IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK…FOR THE REMAINDER OF DECEMBER THROUGH
JANUARY…CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
…UPDATE STATEMENT…
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
DECEMBER 6TH…OR EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT
DROUGHT SITUATION OCCUR.
