CLOUDLESS SKY: We have another delightful winter day in progress across Alabama. A cloudless sky along with temperatures in the 60s. Tonight will be clear with a low in the 35-45 degree range.
The weather will stay dry tomorrow… with a partly sunny sky afternoon temperatures will rise into the 67-71 degree range. Clouds thicken tomorrow night.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY: A dynamic weather system will bring the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms to Alabama and much of the Deep South Thursday and Thursday night.
SPC has defined a “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe storms defined for areas west of a line from Athens to Moody to Prattville to Jackson; the rest of the state is in a “marginal risk” (level 1/5).
This is a classic case of a system encountering marginal instability and high shear, something we see here often in the cold season.
TIMING: The broad window for severe storms in Alabama will come from 2:00 p.m. until 2:00 a.m. Storms will end from west to east Thursday night.
THREATS: Storms will be capable of producing hail, strong winds, and a few tornadoes. The higher risk of a tornado is over the “slight risk” across the western half of Alabama.
WIND: Gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) will average 15-30 mph out of the south, with potential for gusts to 40 mph. It will be a windy day.
RAIN: Rain amounts of around one inch are likely… a few spots could see higher totals. Flooding is not expected to be an issue at this point.
Remember events like this are common in Alabama in February; tornado season here runs from November through May. Be sure you have a reliable way of hearing warnings if they are needed (never an outdoor siren), and have a plan in case you go in a tornado warning polygon at some point.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly to mostly sunny Friday, but the day will be sharply colder with a high in the low 50s. Dry weather continues over the weekend with sunny days, fair nights, and a warming trend. The high Saturday will be in the mid to upper 50s, and then in the mid 60s Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Moisture returns Monday, and we will bring in the chance of showers. Then, it looks like there will be some risk of rain each day next week as a moist airmass will over the state. Too early to know if we will see any severe weather threat; rain amounts in the 1-2 inch range look likely Monday through Friday. The week will be mild as temperatures reach the 70s in many places by Tuesday and Wednesday… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
ON THIS DATE IN 2021: Freezing rain continue across parts of North and Northwest Alabama. As much as 1/2 inch of ice accretion occurred in areas, with lesser amounts closer to 1/4 inch more common. The weight of the ice caused trees to bend or fall over, tree branches to break, and power outages. The coating of ice made for dangerous or impossible travel across the warning area. Weak instability values aloft yielded a few lightning strikes where frozen precipitation was occurring.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…
