This weekend, I have been sharing my notes from the keynote address delivered by National Weather Service Director Jack Hayes at the National Weather Association in Louisville a few weeks back. He outlined some of the accomplishments that have occurred since the modernization in the 1980s. He also gave some interesting highlights of improvements that are coming in the future.
Hayes predicts that there will be significant improvements in the lead time of forecasts for winter storms. This could result in billions of dollars in savings. Space weather forecasting is also a major focus. Solar flares affect global positioning systems, aviation, electric power transmission and space operations.
A big focus will be on completing he forecast. By this, Hayes means understandable products that incorporate the social sciences and help the end user decide whether or not to take action based on the forecast. Forecasts and eventually warnings will be expressed more in probabilities that aviation, emergency management and the general public can interpret more easily.
The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System is about fifty percent complete, boasting some 2,237 forecast locations. This system has led to a 40% increase in the lead time for Flash Flood Warnings.
You can expect improve hurricane guidance. The HWRF has been upgraded. It has proven to be 26% more accurate in the day three through day five intensity forecasts. Experimental runs were conducted on the University of Texas Supercomputer during Hurricane Ike. The output resulted in significant improvements in the day 3 through 5 forecast period. On another note, the implementation of DART buoys has given real time worldwide tsunami detection
Finally, Mr. Hayes is asking local National Weather Service Offices to focus on high impact weather for the next few years. It sounds like the weather service is moving in a positive direction.
