Nothing like a large cluster of thunderstorms about 100 miles north and about 200 miles northwest to keep a weather forecaster on his /her toes. And that is the situation just before noon.
However, there are a couple of interesting notes to be made. Radar has shown a decrease in intensity and coverage over the last hour. That, combined with evidence from satellite data that the cloud tops are warming, should lead to a downward trend in the overall cluster.
There is still a big unknown and that has to do with what kind of boundary the cluster has left behind. It could be enough to focus additional development this afternoon, so we’ll need to keep a careful eye on the situation for forecast updates. One positive note from the morning sounding is that the inversion around 800 millibars is still there this morning. This suggests enough of a cap to keep us dry.
-Brian-
