The Wednesday morning edition of the Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes. A reminder; this blog discussion is often posted before the video is ready (we have to render and upload the video)… the video is usually ready by 3:30 p.m. and 7:00 a.m.
A BRISK MORNING: Current observations include -24 at Edmonton, Alberta (Canada), -11 at Butte, Montana, and and -6 at Dickinson, ND. Don’t forget the official arrival of winter is still four weeks away. Yikes.
The leading edge of the cold air this morning runs from near Madison, Wisconsin to Kansas City and on down to near Dalhart, Texas. Ahead of the front today, SPC has defined a slight risk of severe storms from near San Antonio to Chicago. In the cold air, heavy snow will develop over much of Colorado. That big mess shifts to the east tomorrow…
WILD WEATHER TOMORROW: A wave should form on the Arctic front tomorrow, and will bring a wide variety of weather issues to the central and eastern U.S. Of course, we will be in the warm sector of the system, and all of Alabama is in a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow night. In the cold air, northwest of the front, snow and ice will become a problem all the way from Dallas/Fort Worth to Cleveland. Looks like some of the heaviest snow will be centered on places like St. Louis; there should be a strip of heavy snow in the cold air where some folks might see over 10 inches. See the video for all the graphics and details.
OUR SEVERE WEATHER RISK: Once again, a case of excellent dynamics tomorrow night, and marginal thermodynamics. The best chance of strong to severe storms here will come from about 9:00 p.m. through 3:00 a.m. Friday. The highest CAPE for Birmingham tomorrow night on the WRF/NAM model is only 85 j/kg… you really like to see that number well over 1000 for a big severe weather threat. But, again you can’t ignore the dynamics, and the MUCAPE values are higher. Low topped storms should form on a squall line and will have the potential for strong winds as they move through. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
If those CAPE values were higher we would be concerned about a significant tornado threat, but that is not the case.
FRIGID FRIDAY: The cold air arrives Friday, and it will be very shallow. The WRF/NAM MOS has the better chance of being correct since the model resolution is higher. That guidance for Birmingham shows the temperature at 34 degrees at 6am, 39 degrees at 12 Noon, and 34 degrees at 6pm. So… our original forecast from last week looks pretty good now with us holding in the 30s all day. The sky should clear during the day, and the chance of any significant snow here is very remote; although a few flurries are possible over Northeast Alabama during the morning.
THE WEEKEND: The front stalls out over the southeast tip of the state, so the weekend should be dry and cool. A secondary surge of cold air moves in here Sunday night.
NEXT WEEK: Our coldest morning should come early Tuesday with lows here well down in the 20s. This follows a cold Monday with a high only in the mid 40s. Another upper trough swings through here on Thursday (December 6); moisture will be limited but the GFS hints at some risk of light rain here in Alabama, and light snow north of I-40 in northern Tennessee and Kentucky.
LONG RANGE: Still a suggestion of a severe weather threat on the GFS in the December 12-13 time frame, but lets all day it together, that is deep in voodoo land.
WEATHER NEWS: Keep up with the latest news on the snow and ice over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. If you register you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what shows up on the front page.
I am off to Northport this morning to speak to the kids at Crestmont Elementary school… what a great excuse for a visit to the City Cafe in downtown Northport, perhaps one of the greatest meat and threes in the world. I will be back in the office early this afternoon, and a fresh Weather Xtreme video will be ready by 3:30. J.B. and the gang will keep the blog updated with fresh information today!
