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THIS AFTERNOON: Alabama is basking in the summer sunshine again this afternoon with temperatures mostly in the low to mid 90s; the actual range at 3:00 is from 89 at Haleyville to 98 at Montgomery. Dewpoints are in the low 50s, and humidity levels are only in the 20 percent range at most spots.
REST OF THE WEEK: We stay mostly dry through Friday. I guess you might mention the risk of isolated afternoon showers Thursday and Friday, but for now the chance seems so low we won’t mention it in the forecast. Highs will hold in the low to mid 90s, with slowly rising humidity levels over the latter half of the week.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Any showers Saturday should be widely spaced, but the chance of a significant rain event still is on the table in the Sunday/Monday time frame, thanks to an approaching front, and deep tropical moisture that could move in from the southwest. While the 12Z GFS isn’t as bullish on this idea, there is solid evidence to support a tropical wave moving across the Gulf into Texas late in the week, maybe even as a tropical storm. That moisture will then curve north, and then northeast along the front. The actual rain chances will be determined by the behavior of the tropical wave in the Gulf. We will keep an eye on develops to the south as the week rolls along.
AT THE BEACH: I expect a pretty huge crowd on the Gulf Coast as the last big weekend of the summer approaches. We expect sunny days and fair nights through Thursday, but a few scattered showers and storms will begin to show up Friday and Saturday as tropical moisture begins to increase. Sunday and Monday could be relatively wet for places like Gulf Shores and Destin, but it all depends on the ultimate development of the wave in the Gulf. Highs will be in the low 90s over the next few days, but dropping back into the 80s by Sunday and Monday thanks to an increase in clouds and showers.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Jose has dissipated… so Tropical Depression 12 is the only organized system at this point in the East Atlantic. This should become Tropical Storm Katia in coming days as it moves to the west/northwest. Katia should become a hurricane by Thursday, possibly a major one. The GFS continues the idea of Katia recurving off the Atlantic Coast of the U.S. with no landfall, but of course this is not carved in stone at this early stage of the game. See the Weather Xtreme video for graphics and more details.
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