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BIG WEEKEND WEATHER CHANGES: Clouds have invaded the northwest part of Alabama this afternoon in advance of a storm system that promises to bring Alabama a wild weather ride this weekend. Some scattered light rain is possible tomorrow morning, mainly over Northwest Alabama, but we still believe the main window for rain is from around 2:00 p.m. tomorrow through 2:00 a.m. Sunday. We are projecting average rain amounts of around 1/2 inch, with potential for up to 1 inch in spots. You might hear some thunder, but with no surface based instability we don’t expect any severe weather.
VERY COLD SUNDAY… SNOW? No doubt the weather turns icy cold Sunday. Temperatures will drop into the low 30s and stay there all day. Northwest winds of 15-30 mph will put the wind chill index down in the teens much of the day, and the 12Z model runs are a little more bullish on the chance of snow flurries over the northern half of the state. Whenever we mention flurries, of course, that implies no accumulation.
The big question involves the potential for a change over to snow as the rain ends during the pre-dawn hours Sunday. After an exhaustive review of model data, I really don’t see much reason to change our ongoing forecast for now. Any change to snow should be very brief, and it shouldn’t cause any travel issues. Like we have discussed in recent days, the best chance of getting the ground white will be across the high terrain of Jackson, DeKalb, Marshall, and Cherokee Counties of Northeast Alabama, especially atop Lookout Mountain. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the details and graphics.
COLDEST SO FAR: We will stick with a low of 15 degrees for early Monday, but some spots north of Birmingham will be in the 10-13 degree range. The wind will push the wind chill index near zero around bus stop time early Monday. And, it sure looks like we won’t get out of the 20s Monday with gusty north winds continuing.
Tuesday morning should be the coldest morning. The colder valleys across North Alabama should see lows in the 6-10 degree range, with other places seeing a minimum temp between 11 and 16.
Needless to say, this is very unusual for Alabama, and you will need to take care of the pipes, pets, plants… and be sure and check on elderly people you know that might have questionable ways of keeping warm during this kind of extreme cold.
REST OF THE WEEK: The high Tuesday will be in the upper 30s, and we warm into the 40s Wednesday. Clouds return Wednesday with an overrunning pattern setting up, and some scattered light rain is possible by Wednesday afternoon. The GFS continues the idea of a warm front moving north of the state Wednesday night, which if correct would mean much warmer weather by Thursday, with a high in the low 60s.
LONG RANGE: Still too early for a Christmas forecast, but for the last several days the GFS ensembles have been suggesting temperatures near average around December 25… that would be 50s during the day and 30s at night. We will see…
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Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m…. enjoy the weekend!
