We are getting started early this morning on today’s and tonight’s severe weather threat. The SPC has just notified NWS offices and weather partners that a watch is likely by early afternoon or sooner if the developing storms over Arkansas starts to become stronger.
As daytime heating works on a moist airmass, instability levels will be approaching 1,000-2,000 joules/kg with effective shear of 50-60 knots, which is a pretty robust combination for severe weather.
The alignment of the shear may lend itself to a line of convection with embedded supercells. There will also be sufficient low level shear for tornado formation. Large hail and damaging winds will be a threat as well.
