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SUNNY MONDAY: We begin this day with temperatures mostly in the 20s; Birmingham’s official low was 27, but the low at Haleyville was 22, while Gadsden reported a minimum of 23. The day will feature a decent amount of sunshine, with a high in the mid 50s for most communities.
SHOWERS TOMORROW: A disturbance will bring clouds back into Alabama late tonight, and it could squeeze out a few showers tomorrow. Rain should be light and spotty due to the limited moisture, and the day certainly won’t be a “wash-out”. The NAM is printing a paltry 0.08″ of rain for Birmingham tomorrow.
SOLSTICE/LUNAR ECLIPSE: We note winter official arrives at 5:38 p.m. tomorrow… when the sun is directly over the Tropic of Capricorn, and we have the lowest sun angle of the year, and the shortest amount of daylight of the year. And, just for fun, we have a lunar eclipse on the day of the winter solstice for the first time since 1638! Here in Alabama, the eclipse begins around 12:30 a.m. (just after midnight tonight. Totality commences at 1:41 a.m. CST and lasts for 72 minutes. It is going to be a close call with the clouds; we do expect clouds to increase tonight, and a high overcast could very well block the eclipse for Alabamians. Still, it is possible the clouds will be thin enough for a decent viewing if you want to stay up late (or get up early!).
Get more details on the lunar eclipse here.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These days look pretty pleasant, with more sun than clouds and highs in the 55-60 degree range.
CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY: A surface low will form in response to a upper trough, meaning a good chance of rain for Alabama at times Friday afternoon into Friday night, and possibly Christmas morning, followed by a sharp change to colder weather. The details, however, are a little muddy at this point.
Using an ensemble approach, we figure the best chance of rain will come from about 12:00 noon to 9:00 p.m. Friday, and a a little thunder will be possible. However, with hardly any surface based instability, the chance of any significant severe weather looks very small despite some good shear values. Rain amounts of about 1/2 inch look likely, with some spots possibly getting more.
Ole Saint Nick should feel right at home Christmas day with much colder air in place. The high should be in the 40-45 degree range with an icy north wind. And, yes, there will be a little wrap around moisture on the back side of the departing storm system, meaning some chance of snow flurries perhaps for Northeast Alabama Christmas morning. Remember, when we say flurries that means no accumulation.
We should note one run of the ECMWF yesterday did show accumulating snow for North Alabama, and one GEM run (Canadian) did the same. But, those are clearly outliers and that solution is rejected for now. But, for those dreaming of a white Christmas, at least you do have the players on the field with a robust storm system and some cold air to the north. For now it just doesn’t look like the players have the ability to put together a winning team. We will watch with great interest in coming days as Christmas gets closer.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The biggest news is still the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) going positive around New Years. This means it should be much harder to get severely cold air down into the Deep South, and can often mean a period of above average temperatures. We will just have to wait and see how long that positive bias lasts. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We record this week’s show at 8:30 CST tonight… we will talk with Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang, the online weather publication of the Washington Post. In addition, Jeff Lyons from WFIE in Evansville will be along as the Guest Panelist. The other panelists will be asked to talk about their favorite wacky weatherperson. Who is yours? In addition, Laura Radford from the University of Alabama will discuss her research into how the public interprets hurricane graphics that include the cone of uncertainty.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | WeatherBrains Podcast | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
I will be working all week… and will crank out two Weather Xtreme videos per usual through Friday. Then, we will go into a holiday schedule with just one video per day beginning Christmas Day and running through January 2. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
