HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007
…DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SYNOPSIS…
THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR PLACES THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA
UNDER EITHER EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT…ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO CLANTON TO LANETT. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS UNDER SEVERE DROUGHT. THIS IS THE FIRST
NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE ONSET OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THIS PAST SPRING. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT
WITHIN ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:
1) ABNORMALLY DRY
2) MODERATE
3) SEVERE
4) EXTREME
5) EXCEPTIONAL
AN ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME MUCH NEEDED
RELIEF FOR AREA LAWNS AND GARDENS. AVERAGE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR
JULY IS 4.50 AND 5.50 INCHES. SO FAR THIS MONTH RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 2.50 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE JANUARY 1:
BIRMINGHAM, 13.06,
MONTGOMERY, 16.50,
ANNISTON, 10.97,
TUSCALOOSA, 12.37,
CALERA, 13.53,
TROY, 22.21,
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM
JANUARY 1ST THROUGH JULY 4TH:
BIRMINGHAM, 31.01, DOWN 17.95,
MONTGOMERY, 31.63, DOWN 15.13,
ANNISTON, 31.39, DOWN 20.42,
TUSCALOOSA, 33.23, DOWN 20.86,
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS…
LOW SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BUT SOME IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST 10
DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND PARTICULARLY
THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF SUMTER AND MARENGO. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY
OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA SOILS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY WITH SOIL
MOISTURE PERCENTILES IN THE 10 PERCENT OR LOWER OF NORMAL RANGE.
THE WORST AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT WITHIN THE CORN CROPS
WITH THE USDA REPORTING 87 PERCENT OF THE ALABAMA CORN CROP IN POOR
OR VERY POOR CONDITION. ACCORDING TO THE USDA, SOME OTHER
PERCENTAGES OF POOR AND VERY POOR CONDITIONS INCLUDE:
COTTON…..68 PERCENT
SOYBEANS…79 PERCENT
PEANUTS….55 PERCENT
LIVESTOCK..67 PERCENT
PASTURE….80 PERCENT
MOST LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE EITHER LOW OR COMPLETELY OUT
OF HAY, WITH RECENT AND FORECASTED RAINS OFFERING HOPE OF ANOTHER
CUT IN THE COMING WEEKS. CURRENTLY, CATTLE PRODUCERS ARE STILL
HAVING TO BUY HAY FROM OTHER STATES OR ARE SELLING THEIR HERDS. MANY
IRRIGATION PONDS ARE CONTINUING TO RUN DRY. ALL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA HAVE BEEN DECLARED NATURAL DISASTER AREAS.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS…
THE FIRE DANGER RISK REMAINS HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES
(KBDI)…REMAIN IN THE 600 TO 700 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA…INDICATING A SEVERE FIRE DANGER. TO DATE…OVER 70000
ACRES HAVE BURNED IN ALABAMA. REPORTS SHOW THAT AREA TREE FARMS ARE
HAVING SIGNIFICANT LOSSES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH NEW
PLANTING SURVIVAL RATES AT 63 PERCENT. AVERAGE SURVIVAL RATE IS NEAR
85 PERCENT. THERE ARE ALSO REPORTS OF A SOUTHERN PINE BEETLE
OUTBREAK.
HOWEVER, NOT ALL NEWS IS BAD. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS…THE ALABAMA
FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS REMOVED THE DROUGHT EMERGENCY ACROSS ALABAMA
AND REPLACED IT WITH A FIRE ALERT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA ARE NO LONGER
WITHIN ANY FIRE RESTRICTIONS.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS…
OVER THE PAST 7 TO 10 DAYS THERE WAS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN AREA
STREAM FLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IMPACT WAS MAINLY WITHIN
THE SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS, HOWEVER, THESE IMPROVED AREAS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF RETURNING TO NEAR RECORD LOW FLOWS.
AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL AND SERIOUS NEGATIVE IMPACTS ARE INCREASING. MOST STREAM
FLOWS WITHIN THESE LARGER SYSTEMS ARE AT OR NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS
WITH RECENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
AREA RESERVOIR OPERATORS INDICATE THAT POOL LEVELS ON MANY
RESERVOIRS ARE APPROACHING WINTER POOL LEVELS.
SOCIAL IMPACTS…
AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE PEAK SEASON FOR RECREATIONAL WATER USAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA…DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA
WATER SUPPLIES. THE NUMBER OF MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY WATER
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS STEADY. FINES AND SURCHARGES FOR EXCESSIVE
WATER USAGE ARE BEING ENFORCED IN MANY AREAS DUE TO THE SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS IN RURAL AREAS OF
CITIZENS RUNNING COMPLETELY OUT OF WATER AS WELL AS ONE STATE PARK
HAVING TO SHUT DOWN PART OF ITS SERVICES DUE TO NO WATER. AREA WATER
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IF BENEFICIAL RAINS DO NOT
OCCUR.
AGAIN, NOT ALL OF THE NEWS IS BAD WITH THE BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
WATER BOARDS REPORTING AREA RESTRICTIONS, IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT
RAINS, HAVE IMPROVED WATER LEVELS FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK…
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND CALLS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT ALABAMA WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.50 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3.00
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST…FOR JULY 18TH THROUGH JULY 26H…CALLS
FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK…FOR THE REMAINDER OF JULY THROUGH
AUGUST…CALLS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
…UPDATE STATEMENT…
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND JULY
20TH…OR EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT
SITUATION OCCUR.
