002
FGUS74 KBMX 071441
ESFBMX
ALC001-005>011-015>021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-063-065-073-075-
081-085>093-101-105>127-121200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
845 AM CDT FRI DEC 7 2007
…DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SYNOPSIS…
A COLD FRONT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING…BUT DID LITTLE TO IMPROVE
OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS CHANGED
LITTLE FROM LAST WEEK…WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA ROUGHLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR ADDISON TO BERRY TO MOUNDVILLE TO UNIONTOWN
TO HAYNEVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF CLAYTON. SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA AS FAR AS A LINE FROM
NEAR HACKLEBURG TO MILLPORT TO JUST EAST OF BELLAMY TO DIXONS MILL.
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THIS IN EXTREME WEST ALABAMA CONTINUE IN
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT
WITHIN ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:
1) ABNORMALLY DRY
2) MODERATE
3) SEVERE
4) EXTREME
5) EXCEPTIONAL
RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AVERAGED ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA…WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS RAINFALL PROVIDED
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS…BUT WAS FAR
FROM WHAT WAS NEEDED TO PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT. NORMAL
RAINFALL FOR DECEMBER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AVERAGES BETWEEN FOUR
AND FIVE INCHES.
SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JANUARY 1ST THROUGH
DECEMBER 6TH:
BIRMINGHAM 27.11
MONTGOMERY 34.10
ANNISTON 19.27
TUSCALOOSA 23.63
CALERA 29.95
TROY 37.48
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM
JANUARY 1ST THROUGH DECEMBER 6TH:
BIRMINGHAM 50.39 DOWN 23.28
MONTGOMERY 50.78 DOWN 16.68
ANNISTON 48.61 DOWN 29.34
TUSCALOOSA 53.23 DOWN 29.60
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS…
SOIL MOISTURE HAS DECLINED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST WEEK DUE TO THE
LACK OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
NEAR ADDISON TO TUSCALOOSA TO CENTREVILLE TO ROANOKE WERE IN THE 10
TO 30 PERCENTILE OF NORMAL RANGE. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR
LAFAYETTE TO MONTGOMERY TO DIXONS MILL WERE IN THE 30 TO 70 PERCENT
OF NORMAL RANGE. REMAINING AREAS WERE BELOW 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SERIOUS AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS CONTINUE. ACCORDING TO THE USDA…
RAINFALL HAS COME TOO LATE TO HELP MANY CROPS THAT WERE ALREADY
PLANTED OR BEING HARVESTED. OVERALL…COTTON YIELDS HAVE BEEN POOR
THIS YEAR. THE MAJORITY OF CATTLE AND LIVESTOCK WERE IN VERY POOR
OR POOR CONDITION. THE DRY WEATHER HAS ALSO HAMPERED THE PLANTING
OF WINTER CROPS DUE TO VERY DRY AND HARD SOILS…ALTHOUGH RECENT
RAINFALL HAS ENCOURAGED SOME FARMERS TO BEGIN PLANTING WINTER
CROPS.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS…
THE FIRE DANGER RISK REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA…
BUT HAVE IMPROVED A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)…REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 400 TO 600 RANGE TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CENTRE TO
ARKADELPHIA TO TUSCALOOSA TO PLANTERSVILLE TO TALLASSEE TO
ALEXANDER CITY TO ROANOKE. THIS INDICATES A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONTINUES. REMAINING AREAS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
200 TO 400 RANGE…WHICH INDICATES A SOMEWHAT LOWER FIRE DANGER DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL.
THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTS THAT NO COUNTIES ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER A FIRE ALERT.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS…
STREAMFLOWS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DECLINE ONCE AGAIN…DUE TO THE
LACK OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE TO MAINTAIN OR IMPROVE THE CURRENT
STREAMFLOWS.
AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS CONTINUE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH SERIOUS
NEGATIVE IMPACTS CONTINUING. MANY POOL LEVELS IN MAJOR RESERVOIRS
ARE BELOW NORMAL WINTER POOL LEVELS…WITH SOME NEAR OR AT RECORD
LOW LEVELS. IT WILL TAKE FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A DAY OR
SO TO RETURN MOST OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS TO NORMAL WINTER POOL
LEVELS. SOME OF THE MOST SERIOUS IMPACTS CONTINUE ON THE COOSA AND
TALLAPOOSA RIVERS. NAVIGATION ON THE ALABAMA RIVER BELOW MONTGOMERY
CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY LOW RIVER STAGES. GRADUAL DECREASES IN
RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DOES
NOT OCCUR.
SOCIAL IMPACTS…
STRESS ON LAWNS…YARD SHRUBBERY AND PLANTS HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO
RECENT COOLER WEATHER AND PERIODIC RAINFALL. HOWEVER…THE THREAT
OF WATER SHORTAGES FOR MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEMS PERSISTS. MOST WATER
RESTRICTIONS ALREADY IN PLACE CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT
THIS TIME…IT IS ESTIMATED THAT AROUND 43 PERCENT OF THE STATE’S
POPULATION IS UNDER SOME FORM OF WATER RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK…
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO THE WEST OF
ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS…WILL HELP TO BRING SOME INCREASE
OF MOISTURE TO THE STATE. HOWEVER…ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL NOT HELP
OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK…AND
THIS COULD BRING SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AT THAT TIME.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST…FOR DECEMBER 12TH THROUGH DECEMBER
20TH…IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK…FOR THE REMAINDER OF DECEMBER THROUGH
JANUARY…CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
…UPDATE STATEMENT…
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
DECEMBER 13TH…OR EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT
DROUGHT SITUATION OCCUR.
