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Another cool start to the day but temperatures have begun to recover with morning readings about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than those of yesterday morning. The temperature at my house hit 31 degrees yesterday morning, so I’ve had a freeze, however, with the low dewpoints there was not much frost that I noticed.
Yesterday was pretty picture perfect and I think we are going to see another picture perfect day today. High pressure at the surface continues to nose across the area from a center on the Mid-Atlantic coast. That high center will move eastward today and tonight allowing moisture to return into the lower Mississippi River valley tonight and Monday.
It looks like Monday will be a transition day with moisture and clouds increasing. By afternoon we’re likely to see showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. The rain should get really cranked up Monday night as a weak low pressure system forms along the Gulf coast in response to a digging trough coming out of the Rockies. Unlike the model solution yesterday, the guidance today suggests that this system will move through quickly with rain ending in the morning Tuesday giving way to dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday.
With the progressive pattern, we’re going to see another weather system impact Central Alabama on Friday and Saturday, Storm Alert Xtreme day. There continues to be some hint at possible severe weather with a strong short wave trough that becomes negatively tilted. However, we’ve seen the model solution change a great deal and with a lack of consistency in model solutions, the forecast of a severe weather outbreak is not firm. This is certainly a situation to watch and this is one of the key values to longer range forecasting. Confidence right now is not very high because of the variability in model solutions from run to run. In other words, stay tuned.
Whatever the final outcome, it does look like another round of rain on Saturday, possibly as early as late Friday. But throughout the upcoming week, all the trends point to a mild week with lows well above seasonal values and highs at or slightly above – those are 45 for lows and 68 for highs.
Trolling out the GFS continues to be fairly aggressive with a new storm system every 3 to 4 days through week 2 and a continuation of mild weather with little amplitude to those upper troughs. I wouldn’t bet on rain on a certain day, but the pattern looks pretty regular.
Off to church shortly. I hope you have a great Sunday and great week, too. God bless.
-Brian-
