RADAR CHECK: A very persistent band of rain and thunderstorms is over the central part of Alabama this afternoon, where beneficial rain continues to fall. Some of the heavier storms have produced hail. Temperatures are only in the mid to upper 60s in many areas where the rain is falling, which will likely limit the threat of severe storms tonight.
But, much of North and South Alabama is dry, and the next wave of storms will move in tonight with potential for them to become severe. SPC has much of the state in a “slight risk” (level 2/5)… a small part of West Alabama (near the Mississippi line) is in an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5).
The main concern later today and tonight will come from strong, potentially damaging straight line winds. A brief, isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out over the western half of the state, but wind is the main concern…. storms should weaken after midnight as they move quickly into East and South Alabama.
Most of the day tomorrow will be dry with a high in the low 80s. Then, high resolution models suggest another area of rain and thunderstorms will move through the southern 2/3 of the state late tomorrow and tomorrow night; there is “marginal risk” (level 1/5) risk of severe storms over the southern half of the state.
Heavier storms tomorrow night could produce strong wind gusts across South Alabama. A brief, isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, but isn’t especially likely.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: As a surface front moves into far South Alabama, we expect a cooling trend. By Friday highs will be in the 60s over the northern half of the state. Any showers on Thursday should be confined to the southern quarter of the state, and Friday looks generally dry statewide.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A wave of low pressure will form along the front, and the latest global model data suggests we will need to forecast a good chance of rain statewide Saturday. For now it looks like the highest rain coverage Saturday will come during the morning hours. Sunday looks dry and pleasant with a high in the 70s. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.
ON THIS DATE IN 2014: A total of 29 tornadoes touched down in Alabama, including an EF3 tornado that moved from southeast of Rogersville into Athens, resulting in 2 fatalities. An EF-1 moved through the southern part of Tuscaloosa, injuring 13 people. An EF-3 moved through Lee County south of I-85… a total of 13 injuries were also reported there.
Look for the next video briefing here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…
