Check out today’s morning edition of the Weather Xtreme video in the player below, or watch it on iTunes. Runs a tad long today because we have plenty of issues to discuss!
STORM ALERT XTREME: Again let me begin with a reminder our annual severe weather training event is this Saturday at the BJCC. Get the details here, including information on which entrance to use Saturday morning. Our pals at the Birmingham Automobile Dealers Association have agreed to let everyone that attends Storm Alert XTREME enter the 2007 Alabama International Auto Show, going on this weekend, at no cost. So, after Storm Alert XTREME you can check out all the cool new cars and trucks. I will be doing the weather live at the Auto Show this Thursday evening at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News. We do hope to see you there Saturday; I am looking for all of our “blog family” to be there so we can put faces with the names we see here on our comments.
LOTS OF WIND LAST NIGHT: Our SKYCAM site atop the Wingate Inn in Inverness (right behind Joe’s Crab Shack) measured a peak wind gust of 63 mph, I sure felt that driving home from the ABC 33/40 studio. Almost like driving through a hurricane coming across Oak Mountain, but instead of heavy rain it was a leaf storm. There were so many leaves coming off the trees it made it hard to see the center line of the road at times. I sure am glad I spent some time viewing the fall colors yesterday along the Cahaba River, I would image we are past the peak now with this rain and wind. I have to wonder if a gravity wave was involved in those high winds last night…
TODAY: From looking at the radar this morning you can clearly see that the rain will not fall all day. In fact, the sun might even try to poke out at times. But, a cold core upper low will pass overhead today, and with temperatures at 500 mb expected to be -20 (C) or colder, we should see additional shower and thunderstorm development during the day today. I would not be totally surprised if some small hail falls from the showers due to the cold air aloft, but severe weather problems are not likely on a widespread basis due to the lack of surface based instability. That, of course, is assuming the clouds hang tough through the day. “Cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe”… will be an interesting day to watch the weather.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: I think we need to mention some risk of a few stray showers in scattered spots tonight and tomorrow morning, but additional rain amounts should be light and spotty. We should begin to see some sun breaking through tomorrow afternoon.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A big warm-up. Lots of sunshine both days, with mid 70s on Thursday, and upper 70s Friday. Somebody in West Alabama will probably touch 80 degrees Friday afternoon, very close to record levels for this time of the year. No cold weather problems for the high school football playoff games Friday night; the weather will be very pleasant.
THE WEEKEND: Model madness continues, and anything goes beyond day four in this forecast package. I hate to flip-flop when writing public forecasts, but there will inevitably be a number of changes in coming days concerning the weather for the weekend and next week. The general idea is that the weather will be wet and unsettled.
The 00Z GFS is coming in stronger with our weekend system; SPC has much of Mississippi in a severe weather risk for Saturday, but no risk here. The main dynamics will pass north of Alabama, which hopefully will prevent a severe weather problem here. There is a decent chance much of the day Saturday will be dry, but a band of showers and storms will move in here Saturday night.
The latest model run suggests the showers will move out of here by early Sunday morning. I am not sure that is correct, since the front will pretty much be parallel to the upper air winds. So for now we will maintain a chance of showers during the day Sunday. Highs for the weekend will be mild, in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS shows a very strong system Tuesday over the Midwest; a 988 mb surface low not far from Chicago with a trailing front. This still might set up a risk of strong to severe storms for parts of the Deep South Tuesday. No doubt we will have showers and storms here. And, the front should hold up and become stationary as it runs into the subtropical ridge over Florida, and that should prolong the rain well into mid-week. I am beginning to wonder if we will have more of a flooding threat as opposed to a severe weather threat next week. Once again, it will be very interesting to watch developments.
LONG RANGE: With the NAO in neutral territory, and the ongoing upper air pattern, it looks like the chance of a big cold air intrusion at mid-month has diminished; the weather looks very wet and mild in the November 10-20 time frame for now.
WEATHERBRAINS: We recorded a new WeatherBrains episode last night (we normally record them Monday nights at 8:30)… I will get that posted shortly.
JAPAN TORNADO: At least nine people were killed yesterday in a tornado in northern Japan; I think that is the deadlest tornado on record for that nation. Check it out on WeatherParty.com
I will be visiting the Birmingham Veterans Hospital today… I am looking forward to spending some time with some great Americans who have served our country. These guys are the real heroes. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… be sure and VOTE today!
