The Storm Prediction Center is discussing issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas in far south-central Kentucky, portions of middle into eastern Tennessee, eastern Mississippi, north and central Alabama, and northwest Georgia.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT WED APR 06 2016
AREAS AFFECTED…FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KY…PORTIONS OF MIDDLE INTO
EASTERN TN…EASTERN MS…NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL…AND NORTHWEST GA
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062323Z – 070130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT
SUMMARY…GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS THIS EVENING. SPORADIC
STRONGER GUSTS MAY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS…BUT OVERALL THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME…BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
DISCUSSION…AN INITIAL BAND OF STORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AL WAS
RESULTING IN SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS PER REPORTS FROM NWS LMK AND OHX.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MS TOWARD THE TN BORDER. MEAGER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEG F AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S HAS RESULTED IN ONLY
WEAK DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER…STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 DEG C PER KM AND 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND
35-45 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPORADIC/MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME…TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
