The SPC may issue a severe thunderstorm watch for parts of South Alabama, Mississippi, northern Florida and southern Georgia.
Storms are expected to increase over the next couple of hours along the southward moving outflow boundary from this mornings storms.
Here is the text of the mesoscale discussion:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…WRN GA…FL PANHANDLE…SRN AL…CNTRL MS
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061704Z – 061830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT
SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM WRN GA…ACROSS SRN AL INTO CNTRL MS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION…REMNANT MCS THAT HAS DRIFTED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO
CNTRL AL HAS FORCED AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO WRN GA…ARCING
ACROSS SRN AL INTO CNTRL MS. STRONG HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC-3KM
LAPSE RATES NOW APPROACHING 8 C/KM. WHAT LITTLE INHIBITION THAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING IS EFFECTIVELY GONE AND SFC PARCELS SHOULD
FREELY CONVECT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW GIVEN THE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN ADDITION…MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
QUITE COOL ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 500MB VALUES BETWEEN MINUS
12-14C. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ROBUST UPDRAFTS DESPITE THE
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LATEST THINKING IS TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND UPWARD GROWTH/STORM MERGERS WILL
LIKELY AID IN A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ARCING CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION THAT
SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAIL/WIND
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..DARROW.. 05/06/2012
