The Tuesday afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video is available on the player below, or you can watch on iTunes. I suggest you watch if you have time since we have the potential for a very active weather day tomorrow. Also, on the video I take next week one day at a time if you have Thanksgiving travel plans…
LIVE TONIGHT: A reminder I will be on the live stream on abc3340.com tonight at 8:00 for a special update concerning the severe weather threat tomorrow… I also plan on that being carried on the ABC 33/40 “Weather Now” channel on many cable systems around the state. You can see our live stream by clicking on the live stream graphic on the upper right part of the main 33/40 weather page.
RIGHT NOW: As J.B. notes below, severe storms are developing over Louisiana, where a tornado watch is in effect for the rest of the afternoon. We note that 60 degree dewpoints have advected as far north as Texarkana, Arkansas, with 70 degree dewpoints along the Louisiana coast. This means we have an excellent chance for those higher dewpoints to move into Alabama early tomorrow, which means a significant severe weather threat is ahead.
THE NUMBERS: For those of you meteorologically inclined, here are some severe weather parameters for tomorrow afternoon from the NAM/WRF model:
Surface based CAPE: 679
Lifted index: -2.6
0-3 km helicity: 595
850 mb wind: 58 knots
500 mb wind: 73 knots
250 mb wind: 100 knots
We note the GFS is even more unstable, with a surface based CAPE of about 1000 j/kg for Birmingham tomorrow afternoon.
With these kind of numbers, there is no doubt severe weather is a very real threat for much of Alabama tomorrow, especially along and south of I-20 where SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather in place. A squall line will move through during the afternoon and evening hours with potential for damaging straight line winds, and any isolated cells ahead of the line has the potential to produce a tornado.
TIMING: The best chance of severe storms tomorrow should come from 10:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. This, of course, means all school systems and businesses should closely monitor the blog and ABC 33/40 as events unfold. Also, as recommend that all families and businesses review their severe weather safety plan this afternoon… it has been a while since we have had a risk this significant. Lets hope for a wet day with no severe weather, but we have to be ready.
RAIN: The rain will be heavy at times; the WRF/NAM shows 2.17″ for Birmingham, while the GFS prints 2.02″. The guys at HPC believe come East Alabama communities, especially between Anniston and Auburn, could see over three inches of rain tomorrow.
THURSDAY: Still looks like a raw, blustery day. Clouds all day; some lingering light rain or drizzle during the morning, and temperatures in the 40s much of the day.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: The weather will be dry and cool Friday and over the weekend; a new surge of cooler air arrives Sunday keeping temperatures below normal.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: Again, you can watch the video for a day by day look at the GFS concerning next week. The model now shows a strong vort max rotating through the eastern U.S. trough Monday, which will bring some chilly air in here Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest GFS MOS shows a high of only 49 degrees for Birmingham on Tuesday. The week looks mostly dry, although some rain could show up toward the end of the week.
We do note the GFS now suggests a major storm on the mid-Atlantic coast next Wednesday which might foul up airport traffic at places like Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia.
JOIN THE PARTY: Don’t forget to bookmark our sister site, weatherparty.com… always some interesting weather news over there. You can register and submit links and vote on them to determine what shows up on the front page.
See you on the live stream here tonight at 8:00… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted bright and early tomorrow morning by 7:00. J.B. will keep the blog updated with fresh information… stay tuned!
