SUMMARY…Isolated supercells are possible with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat.
DISCUSSION…Surface-based storm development has started across southern Mississippi along and ahead of a surface front currently from near Jackson, MS to far southwest MS. Cross boundary effective shear around 40 to 45 knots and MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg should support discrete supercell development. Weaker lower tropospheric flow and somewhat veered surface winds have led to relatively weaker low-level shear in this area. While tornadoes cannot be ruled out, the tornado threat is much lower in southern Mississippi than in Tornado Watch 25. Limited storm coverage will likely preclude the need for a watch in this area, but if supercell coverage becomes more scattered, a watch may be needed.
