SUMMARY…Strong to severe storms expected this afternoon with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat.
DISCUSSION…In addition to ongoing convection in eastern Mississippi and western Alabama, numerous storms have developed along and ahead of a cold front in northern Alabama and southern Tennessee where moderate instability has developed. Unseasonably strong flow (greater than 50 knots above 6 km per KGWX VWP) will lead to sufficient effective shear for storm organization including a few rotating updrafts. Indeed, initial returns from the KHTX WSR-88D are showing some mid-level rotation. Expect a mixed mode of multicell clusters and supercell structures with damaging winds as the primary threat. Weak mid-level lapse rates will temper the overall hail threat, however there is a better chance for isolated large hail with the storms in northern Alabama where both instability and shear will be maximized. An isolated tornado is also possible in this area as low-level hodographs show some curvature with westerly flow around 30 knots at 1 km per KGWX VWP. The widespread storm coverage may lead to enough convective turnover to prevent a more widespread severe threat, but given MUCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 35-45 knots, a severe thunderstorm watch is possible.
