SUMMARY…Isolated instances of large hail and a couple of stronger wind gusts will be possible through this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Within the right-entrance region of a jet streak centered over the Ohio Valley, large-scale ascent is aiding convective activity across parts of Mississippi and Alabama this morning. The 12Z JAN sounding sampled strong mid-level westerlies, favorable for some updraft organization and increased hail growth. Additionally, the presence of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE is supportive of a few stronger updrafts. The sounding also sampled a subsidence inversion around 700 mb, but aforementioned ascent related to the upper jet is likely eroding this layer of dry air above 700 mb. Most convection will likely be focused near a front situated across southern/central Alabama, and these cells will be capable of isolated large hail and a couple of damaging gusts into this afternoon. A cell or two farther north may also be capable of marginally severe hail and some gusty winds, but the severe threat should diminish with northward extent. Regardless, cells are not expected to be organized enough to necessitate watch issuance.
