SUMMARY…Potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado will continue across northeast MS, northern AL, and middle TN for the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION…KGWX radar imagery has shown sporadic and brief low-level rotation within the supercell now moving through southern Lowndes county. However, latest scans have shown a trend towards less low-level inflow/low-level organization with velocity values decreasing and the previously observed ZDR arc losing definition. Echo tops have also decreased over the past 30 min or so. Strongest updraft (based on echo top) appears to be associated with the storm in Franklin and Cobert counties in far northwest AL. Downstream air mass from both of these storms suggests a gradual decrease in intensity as instability wanes. Even so, given the strong low-level shear, brief low-level organization capable of isolated wind damaging and or a brief tornado remains possible. Farther north, the convective line moving across middle TN has shown modest intensification, particularly over the last 30 min or so. Downstream thermodynamic environment is characterized by temperatures in the 60s, dewpoints in the limited instability. Even so, very strong low-level shear (sampled well by the 00Z BNA sounding) could still support instances of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado before the line moves into cooler, more stable air north of the warm front.
