We have been tracking a line of intense thunderstorms tonight as it has been dropping through western Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas.
The SPC and local NWS offices issued a severe thunderstorm watch that went until 2 a.m., but it was locally extended until 3 a.m. for parts of NE Arkansas and western Tennessee. That watch just expired.
The SPC just issued a mesoscale discussion indicating that the watch will not be extended into northern Mississippi or northern Alabama.
Over the past hour, the part of the line that will drop into northern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama has weakened. Isolated wind gusts to 50 mph are possible as it reaches the Shoals area in the next hour.
There are no longer any severe thunderstorm warnings along the line, which extends from Memphis to the southeast of Jackson TN to Nashville.
The SPC has issued a slight risk severe weather outlook for Friday for much of northern and North Central Alabama over across northern Georgia into extreme northwest South Carolina.
Storms will begin to fire around noon over Northeast Alabama and then go off like firecrackers across the northern third of the state, generally north of I-20. The storms will be fueled by significant amounts of instability, in the 2,500 joules/kg range.
Precipitable water values will be extremely high, approaching and in some cases exceeding two inches, so damaging wind gusts will be very likely with the heavy amounts of moisture in the atmosphere. There could be some hail. Tornadoes should not be a threat, except for the isolated chance of an isolated one.
Highs will top out in the upper 80s to near 90F before the storms happen. Everyone won’t get wet, but if you are under one of the storms, be ready for deadly lightning, strong winds that can topple trees especially given the wet ground conditions and very heavy rain.
Expect another complex of storms to come in late Saturday night into early Sunday. With that timing, it should be weakening as it approaches Alabama. But there is enough uncertainty for the SPC to include much of the northern half of the state in a marginal severe weather risk for Saturday night.
