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HOT SUMMER DAY: First off, we note Birmingham has reached 90 degrees for only the second time during the month of July… pretty amazing considering this is July 17. We are looking at mid 90s up over the Tennessee Valley; they are closer to the strong upper high over the Ohio River, which is the center of the heat bubble.
On the radar, it is pretty quiet with only a few showers over the northeast corner of the state at mid-afternoon.
TO THE EAST: Strong storms are in progress over parts of Georgia and the Carolinas; in fact SPC has a severe thunderstorm watch up for parts of this region until 10p ET. These storms are moving westward under the upper high to the north, and those could very well rotate into Alabama. In fact, the high res 4km NAM shows a batch of storms moving through our state between 10p and 4a… late tonight and early tomorrow morning, and based on radar trends I think we need to mention this possibility in the forecast. Don’t think we will have any organized severe weather, but they could very well be noisy, middle of the night storms with lots of lightning. We will be watching radar trends.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: We will mention the risk of scattered showers and storms both days, but tomorrow there is a real chance the highest coverage of the storms will be west of Alabama on the outflow of the storms we expect late tonight. Afternoon highs will stay in the 89-92 degree range with a mixture of clouds and sunshine.
OUR WEEKEND: A moist airmass stays in place, and with colder air aloft we figure there will be an increase in the number of showers and storms both days. Not a wash-out, but just be ready for an occasional passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs this weekend should be in the upper 80s, and on the positive side there will be intervals of sunshine.
The moist, tropical air stays in place next week with the daily risk of scattered showers and storms continuing.
TROPICS: Tropical storm formation is not expected across the Atlantic basin this week, but the next MJO pulse should bring more action there toward the end of the month.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Nice day today on the Gulf, and we still expect 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily through the weekend, with the continued risk of a few scattered showers and storms. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are in the low to mid 80s.
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