Storms Return By Wednesday

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CHILLY START: Feels more like January 7 instead of March 7 across the great state of Alabama this morning. Temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 30s; we are generally above freezing because the stubborn clouds that stuck around all day yesterday are still there this morning. And, in addition to the low cloud layer, some high clouds have moved over the state, so the sky today will be partly sunny at best. And, temperatures will remain below average today with a high in the 50s (we should be in the mid 60s on March 7).

MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM: After another chilly morning tomorrow, we rise into the 60s tomorrow afternoon as a warming trend begins. The sky will be generally cloudy although the sun will make an appearance at times. To the west tomorrow, SPC has a large slight risk of severe weather in place (their standard risk) across Louisiana and Arkansas as a new early spring storm system gets it’s act together. The activity to the west is expected to evolve into a squall line, moving into Alabama Wednesday morning. And, SPC has most of our state under a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday.

The GFS and the RPM suggest the main window for the line of storms Wednesday will be from 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon, and certainly the main risk will be from damaging straight line winds. It is interesting to note that the better instability values actually come later in the way once the line has passed through, and the best helicity values to the north. So, it is certainly not a classic severe weather setup, but we always have to watch any storm complex that moves through Alabama in March.

REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: Thursday will be another rather chilly day with a high in the 50s with a cool north breeze and gradual clearing. If the clouds stick around all day, we might have a hard time getting out of the 40s, much like yesterday. Friday morning will be cold with potential for a light freeze, but we begin to warm up Friday afternoon with ample sunshine and a high in the low to mid 60s.

The weather this weekend looks fine, with a partly to mostly sunny sky Saturday and Sunday. Afternoons will be pleasant, with highs in the 67-70 degree range.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The GFS suggests the next rain event after the weekend will come around Tuesday March 15. And, we note the NAO tries to go negative in about 10 days, which means potential for some decent cold air invasions later in the month. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

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I have a weather program today at Vincent Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!