Skies are mostly sunny across much of Alabama on this Sunday morning.
Temperatures are climbing rapidly through the 80s, heading for highs in the lower and middle 90s today. The temperature reach 90F at BHM at 9:20 am this morning, about the same time as yesterday when BHM reached 98F for the high. I raised the average high temperature to 96F on the forecast.
Heat index values are already in the 90s in most locations. Birmingham is at 98F, Greenville at 99F, and Mobile at 100F.
Heat advisories blanket the entire state today, with heat index values expected to reach 103F-110F across the northern and Central parts of the state.
Prolonged exposure can increase your risk of heat related illnesses, so take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water. Never leave people or pets in vehicles. Take extra precautions if working or playing outdoors.
Storms will begin developing as the atmosphere continues to heat and they will become strong to severe. The SPC has already mentioned that a severe thunderstorm watch will be needed in the next 1-2 hours.
The convective temperature on the morning sounding from BMX was 91F, so expected convection to begin when temperatures reach that level. Lapse rates are favorable for good updrafts today, running about 7.3c/km on the morning RAOB.
Shear is modest, but non existent, so storms will have some organization. The profile today favors multicellular storm formation.
There is lots of dry air again at 500 mb or about 18,000 feet. This is a situation that is favorable again for downbursts to develop. So damaging wind will be very possible with stronger storms today. Almost no storm relative helicity, so no tornadoes. The environment is so-so for large hail, but we will see some from the stronger storms today.
Some of the stronger storms could produce torrential rains, even approaching 3 inches per hour. But storm motion should be around 15-20 mph, so flash flooding does not appear to be a significant concern.
Lots of folks are enjoying the outdoors today, so watch out for the lightning especially. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.
