ACTIVE PATTERN: We are in the core of the spring tornado season in Alabama, and we have multiple severe weather threats in the days ahead. Today will be warm with a mix of sun and clouds; temperatures should reach the low 80s this afternoon. The air becomes unstable, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will form by early afternoon. These could be strong, possibly severe, with potential for hail and strong gusty winds. High resolution model data suggests the best potential for the stronger storms this afternoon will be across the central counties of the state. Continue reading →

QUIET AFTERNOON: The big band of rain and storms that produced some flash flooding issues over the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama this morning has moved north of the state, and most of Alabama is dry this afternoon… we note just a few isolated showers over the northeast counties of the state. Temperatures are in the upper 70s and low 80s, and we await a cold front coming in tonight that will trigger strong to severe thunderstorms. Continue reading →

ACTIVE WEATHER: Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving northeast across Alabama early this morning as a warm front lifts northward; heaviest rain is over the northwest part of the state. The middle of the day should be fairly quiet, but we have potential for strong to severe thunderstorms over the northern half of the state late this afternoon and early tonight. SPC has defined a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe storms as far south as Millport, Birmingham, and Jacksonville… a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) is up down to Greensboro, Clanton, and Roanoke. Continue reading →

STORMY START: Rain and thunderstorms are moving through the northern half of Alabama early this morning; the storm produced hail and strong winds over parts of Fayette and Walker counties. As I write this they are weakening as they move into the Birmingham metro. Additional showers and storms are likely today, and by this afternoon the stronger storms will be over the central counties of the state, where SPC has defined a low end, “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms. Continue reading →

ACTIVE WEATHER LATER TODAY: The weather is quiet early this morning across Alabama; temperatures are mostly in the upper 50s and low 60s. We are watching a mass of thunderstorms over far southern Missouri and northern Arkansas; this MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) will roll steadily to the southeast, and should wind up in Alabama this afternoon. Continue reading →

ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT: A cold front will bring the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms to Alabama tonight. While instability values remain somewhat marginal, there will be sufficient dynamic support for a few storms to reach severe limits over the northern half of the state. SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) down to Linden, Calera, and Spring Garden, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) defined as far south as Spanish Fort, Greenville, and Lafayette. Continue reading →

ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD: Alabama will have the dual threat of heavy rain/flooding and strong to severe thunderstorms over the next 36 hours as a dynamic weather system approaches from the west. We have showers and thunderstorms in progress this morning over roughly the northern half of the state, but the core risk of stronger storms will come later today and tonight. Continue reading →

A line of severe thunderstorms will move into far Northwest Alabama soon. A few early morning notes… *The northern segment of the line is moving faster that forecast yesterday; timing has been adjusted for West Alabama. For now, timing remains … Continue reading →

RADAR CHECK: Rain along with a few thunderstorms are over the western third of Alabama this afternoon; the rest of the state is experiencing mostly cloudy and mild conditions. Severe storms have developed well to the west across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, ahead of a storm system moving in our direction. Continue reading →