Published on: August 16, 2013 at 3:44 PM

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AUGUST, OR OCTOBER? A combination of cold air damming, and persistent clouds is keeping Alabama much cooler than average for the middle of August. We should be baking in the 90s… but look at these 3:00 p.m. observations…

Cheaha State Park (south of Anniston) 61 (yep, that is 61… no typo!)
Anniston 70
Auburn 70
Gadsden 70
Birmingham 71
Tuscaloosa 76

A decent chance this becomes the coolest August 16 on record for Birmingham… the record low maximum temperature for today is 73 degrees, set in 1948. Our average high doesn’t drop to 73 degrees until October 21.

The radar is quiet… nothing showing up for a change. The air is simply too stable for showers, but a little drizzle has been reported in the wedge over East Alabama.

OUR WEEKEND: An upper low is forecast to form just northwest of Alabama, and a stalled surface boundary continues over the southern counties of the state. Bottom line is that the weather won’t change much tomorrow and Sunday. I doubt if we get out of the 70s… maybe some West Alabama communities will rise into the low 80s. Generally cloudy with only a limited amount of sunshine, and the risk of a few scattered showers. The most widespread rain in the state will come over the southeast counties around Dothan, Ozark, Geneva, and Abbeville, where a flash flood watch is in effect.

NEXT WEEK: We expect a slow warming trend; we should rise into the low 80s Monday, and mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Each day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours.

TROPICAL WEATHER: Erin, in the far East Atlantic, was downgraded to a tropical depression this morning, and I doubt if it survives due to very dry air surrounding the system. If it hangs in here, most likely it recurves into the open Atlantic, and is no threat to land.

Our tropical wave in the far southern Gulf of Mexico is moving in the general direction of Mexico or Texas. Some chance it becomes a tropical depression or storm, but one way or another the main impact will come from heavy rain, and it should not impact Alabama in a direct way. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Looks wet for the weekend, especially for the coastal communities in the Florida Panhandle, like Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City, where the rain could be heavy at times (a flash flood watch is in effect). The rain could be a little more scattered on the Alabama Gulf Coast, but even there not much sun. The weather should be brighter next week with fewer showers and increasing amounts of sunshine. Highs will be in the 80s, and the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 84 degrees.

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here bright and early Monday morning… Brian Peters will handle the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!