The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.
SUMMARY… The tornado threat across southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia will be focused ahead of a long-lived supercell that has a history of producing at least one tornado.
DISCUSSION… A long-lived supercell across southeast AL has persisted over the past several hours despite experiencing multiple undercutting RFD surges. More recently, this storm has produced at least one radar-confirmed tornado. While the duration of a tornado may be limited due to the potential for additional disruptive RFD surges, re-organization of the cell appears likely given 1) a favorable downstream environment into southwest GA on the nose of a high theta-e axis at the surface, and 2) the low probability of destructive interference from convection within the storm’s inflow region. Consequently, this cell will continue to pose a tornado (as well as damaging winds and severe hail) threat for at least the next 1-2 hours.
