Tropical Storm Dexter remains weak this Tuesday morning, with little change in strength or structure. According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm’s low-level center is still partly exposed, meaning it’s not fully surrounded by thunderstorms, which indicates it’s having trouble maintaining its strength. In fact, the cloud tops near the center have warmed, another sign of weakening storm activity. Current maximum sustained winds are holding steady at around 40 mph.
Forecasters expect Dexter to maintain this weak intensity for the rest of the day. However, some slight strengthening is possible between Wednesday and Thursday as the system interacts with a favorable weather pattern known as a trough. Even if that happens, the strengthening is expected to be limited and not long-lasting. There’s still uncertainty in how quickly that might occur, which is why the official forecast remains mostly unchanged.
Dexter’s path also remains consistent with earlier forecasts. There is still some disagreement among computer models about how fast it will move. The GFS model is on the slower end, while the ECMWF suggests a faster pace. Because there’s been little consistency between forecast runs, the National Hurricane Center has decided to stick closely to their previous track and intensity forecasts for now.
Looking ahead, Dexter is expected to transition into a post-tropical system—losing its tropical storm characteristics—between Wednesday night and Thursday. After that, it will gradually weaken and likely dissipate entirely by the beginning of next week, around Sunday or Monday.
As of 11 a.m. AST on August 5, Dexter was located at 38.0°N latitude and 63.4°W longitude. Forecast guidance suggests it will drift northeastward over the next few days, staying over open waters and not posing a direct threat to land.
While Dexter is weakening, attention is now turning to two other weather systems in the Atlantic that could develop in the coming days.
The first area being monitored is several hundred miles off the southeastern coast of the United States. A weak surface trough is expected to organize into a low-pressure system sometime soon. The surrounding environment looks somewhat favorable for development, and this could gradually become a tropical depression by late this week or into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 10 percent chance of developing within the next two days and a 40 percent chance within the next seven days. Right now, it’s moving slowly westward, but it is expected to turn northward over the weekend.
The second system is located much farther east, over the far eastern tropical Atlantic near Africa. A tropical wave is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the southwest of its center. However, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable over the next several days. As the wave moves west-northwestward across the Atlantic, there is a growing chance it could also become a tropical depression by the weekend. While it’s not expected to develop in the next 48 hours, the chances increase to 50 percent within the next seven days.
