The Wednesday afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
Lots of fun and games for weather people around the nation for the next 48 hours. Be sure and read the posts below this one by the great Alabama weather legend, J.B. Elliott, on the weather in the Arctic air over the western half of the nation. Our friend Kevin Selle of the Texas Cable News Network (TXCN) in Dallas, who is usually with us on our internal IM network, reports they are under a tornado watch and a winter storm watch at the same time. Gotta love it. We are seeing some 50 degree swings on either side of the front through Oklahoma… the mercury drops from near 80 to near 30 in no time at all as you travel west along I-40.
THE ALABAMA STORY: We remain warm, muggy, and showery through tomorrow. Our SKYCAM atop the Tuscaloosa County Courthouse shows rain falling there; the total so far is only 0.02″. Showers will be scattered through tomorrow afternoon, with nothing especially heavy.
SEVERE STORMS? SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for almost all of Alabama tomorrow night. The WRF/NAM still shows surface based CAPE values only in the 50 to 100 j/kg range tomorrow night… so instability values are very marginal. But, the dynamics are excellent, so low topped storms with little lightning will move through, with potential for damaging straight line winds. Guess you can’t rule out a few isolated small tornadoes with high 0 to 1 km shear values. I think the best window for strong to severe storms will come in the 6:00 p.m. to 3:00 a.m. time frame tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours on Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch seem likely during that time frame with the showers and storms.
TUMBLING THERMOMETER: Friday still looks cold. I think the model MOS guidance stinks (the 12Z runs)… those same models were about 15 degrees too warm for Oklahoma and Kansas today. You have to figure we will be somewhere around 40 degrees at daybreak Friday, and the mercury will just sit there, or maybe fall a few degrees down into the mid to upper 30s with an icy north wind. The models won’t understand cold air only a couple of thousand feet deep.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY: The weekend still looks dry and cool. An upper trough will swing through late Sunday and Sunday night, but with little moisture any significant rain looks unlikely.
A fresh surge of colder air rolls in here Monday; I doubt if we see 50 Monday afternoon with a very chilly wind. Tuesday morning looks cold with temperatures well down in the 20s.
Another upper trough rolls through Wednesday of next week (December 6)… that might squeeze out some light rain over Alabama, and maybe some light snow over Tennessee and Kentucky, but once again moisture looks really limited for now.
You can watch the video for all of the graphics that go with this wild weather pattern. And, keep up with the latest weather related news over on WeatherParty.com as events unfold to the west.
Sure enjoyed seeing the first graders today at Crestmont Elementary in Northport. I also enjoyed lunch at the greatest meat and three in the universe, the City Cafe in downtown Northport. Good to see Joe Barger on duty as always; I have been eating there for 30 years, and it just keeps getting better.
J.B. will keep the blog updated on the big storm and I will crank out a fresh Weather Xtreme video tomorrow morning… it will be on the server by 7:00 a.m.!
