Published on: June 30, 2011 at 6:20 AM

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DRY AIR TAKES OVER: If you are up early enough, the change to dry air is very noticeable this morning. And, dry air cools pretty effectively, and we have some refreshing 50s over North Alabama this morning. Our Skywatcher at Black Creek, which is northeast of Gadsden in Etowah County, reports 56 degrees at 5:00 with a clear sky and excellent visibility. Nearby Fort Payne is at 57. Dare I say a touch of fall in the air. Most places are in the 60s; Birmingham is reporting 65 at the insane hour of 5:00.

The dry air means a string of mostly sunny days ahead, with a high in the low 90s today, and mid 90s tomorrow through the Fourth of July holiday weekend. GFS MOS numbers still look too hot and I have adjusted them down a bit. Any showers or storms should be confined to the southern third of Alabama today and tomorrow, and even there they will be pretty widely spaced.

We will bring in the chance of widely scattered, mostly afternoon storms on Monday, but those should fizzle out by the time the fireworks shows crank up Monday night.

NEXT WEEK: The heat ridge weakens a bit, and the GFS hints that scattered showers and storms should be more numerous Tuesday through Friday. Afternoon highs should be mostly in the low to mid 90s.

ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL: This thing almost ramped up to a hurricane, but it has run out of time. Tropical Storm Arlene moved into the Mexican Gulf Coast early this morning with top sustained winds of 65 mph. The rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet.

AT THE BEACH: Expect about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day along the Northwest Florida and Alabama Gulf Coast on a daily basis through Monday. A few scattered storms are possible, but they should be pretty widely spaced. Afternoon highs along the immediate coast will remain close to 90, with mid 90s likely for inland areas. The ocean water is very warm; the temperature was 89 degrees at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab last night. Keep in mind a wildfire is still burning at Gulf Shores State Park, but it is contained and under control.

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