This is an update to our “winter weather outlook†first written here back in mid-September…. you can read that in the post below this one. The actual conclusion of that piece was pretty muddy; there are many mixed signals for this season. But, now that we are getting deeper into the cold season, we might be able to offer some ideas with a little more clarity…
*Before I write anything, remember there are only two kinds of people that forecast the weather in Alabama: fools and strangers. And, only two kinds of people try a seasonal outlook: fools and fools. This is not really an outlook; I don’t even like to try. Just a few thoughts and ideas.
*There was very little tropical weather action after I wrote that September outlook. So, even though sea surface temperatures are cooling down with the change of the season, the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic were largely undisturbed by tropical storms or hurricanes this season, and there should be a fairly large amount of latent heat content in those regions now. No, I am not saying we can expect hurricanes in December (like last year!), but I am saying that might open the door for a few intense winter type storms that spin up in the northern Gulf, then running across northern Florida and into the Atlantic, just off the eastern seaboard of the U.S. With a weak El Nino in progress, which often favors Gulf storm development, and anomalously cold air in place over much of the continent, you just have to wonder if we might have a couple of cracks at a major winter storm this season. The GFS is even hinting at one right now, in the November 30-December 1 time frame.
*A quick peek at snow cover charts shows all of Alaska, and a large percentage of Canada with a solid snow cover. Temperatures continue to run well below normal up north, and the right upper air pattern can bring it down here in a heartbeat.
*Teleconnections aren’t helping much. While the SOI remains negative, meaning we are in an El Nino cycle, the AO (Arctic Oscillation), the PNA (Pacific North American Oscillation) and NAO (North American Oscillation) really are close to neutral at this time, and show no real trends in the short term outlooks from computer model data.
Since the El Nino is a given, we do have to remember that during most El Nino winters here in Alabama we are wet, and not necessarily all that cold.
BOTTOM LINE: I think the message here is this will be a winter of pretty radical temperature swings, meaning we might balance it out with near normal temperatures in the end, but those averages will be based on very mild days and very cold days. Precipitation should be above normal thanks to the El Nino cycle, and we should have the potential for least one, major two major Gulf of Mexico winter storm storm threats. We have to remember we are statistically over due for an ice storm (the last really big one in this part of the state was in 1982), and a cold winter. Our luck will run out one year, you know.
As always, all we can do is wait, and watch. I am sure will address this subject on WeatherBrains tonight, our weekly 30 minute podcast. We will have that show posted early tomorrow morning; listen when you can!
