SUMMARY OF 1 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…35.6N 79.0W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move over North Carolina today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A NOAA-NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) gusting to 50 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday night.
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week:
Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England…2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.
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