Scan down for James’ excellent post on our forecast thinking.
Two main concerns…first any storms that form ahead of the main line of storms. These have the best chance to become tornadic. We will have to wait and see if this occurs. Plenty of shear if we get enough instability and can overcome the cap.
The NWS BMX will launch a special upper air balloon at 17z (12:00 noon.)
Any breaks in the clouds will be bad. That sounds counterintuitive, but the more sunshine, the greater the energy in the atmosphere. If places in west Alabama hit 80-82, the probability of supercell thunderstorms will go way up. Skywatcher Melissa Wilson in Hamilton reports 73/67 with winds gusting to 20 mph at times.
Watch those developing storms back near Starkville. They will intensify and move into West Alabama between Jasper and Tuscaloosa. They wil have the potential to be dangerous. They are kind of the tail end Charlies at the end of the main line.
Then the main line. Embedded supercells will be capable of tornadoes, along with a threat of damaging winds and hail. Can’t forget the lightning…and torrential rains. Driving will be difficult in the heavier storms.
Expect a new tornado watch soon for much of North and Central Alabama. A tornado watch is already in effect until 2 p.m. for Northwest Alabama.
Significant tornado damage (including some dramatic stil photos) in another post from James below.
At 11:40 a.m., the line of storms extended from western Lauderdale and Colbert counties, into NW Franklin County, then to 30 miles west of Hamilton, to 35 miles west of Vernon to about 75 miles west of Tuscaloosa where they become more scattered.
The line is moving east at 25-30 mph. Individual storms are moving ENE at 40 mph.
Severe thunderstorm warning for Tishomingo County in NE Mississippi expired at 11:45. A significant weather alert is in effect for Lauderdale, Colbert and Franklin Counties til noon.
Now is time to take stock of your personal preparedness and be ready to act later today if severe weather threatens.
