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Wow… we actually have a few showers in widely scattered spots on radar as I write this around 5:30 this morning. Needless to say, the daytime heating process is not the reason they are there. We continue to be influenced by an upper air trough that extends from the upper part of the Atlantic coast, southwest into the Deep South. Occasional lobes rotating down the back side of the trough are aiding in the formation of showers and storms, and once again today we figure there will be more around this afternoon during the heat of the day. Like yesterday, many neighborhoods will remain dry, but a few lucky ones will get a good downpour. Our friends in Calera and Sylacauga had well over one inch of rain yesterday from the stronger storms. Some pretty decent sized hail fell in southern Talladega county; see pictures here.
The chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in three. The high should be at or just over 90 degrees in most locations.
THE WEEKEND: The upper trough lifts out, and at this time we expect hot and dry weather for Alabama tomorrow and Sunday with afternoon temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s. The chance of a shower is very tiny both afternoons, and not really worth the mention in our forecast for now.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS continues to show a nice opportunity of scattered to numerous showers and storms next week, and it now identifies Tuesday as the primary day for those showers. The timing continues to flip-flop, but somewhere in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame we should get a pretty decent coverage of showers and storms. Drier air will follow the rain for the latter half of the week.
TROPICS: A tropical wave is over the Northwest Caribbean; watch the Weather Xtreme video and you can see what some of the tropical models do with this. Westerly winds aloft don’t look good for any development today, but as the trough lifts out the wind fields will be a little more favorable for some development late in the weekend. We will keep an eye on it.
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I will crank out one more Weather Xtreme video a little later today, and J.B. will be working the radar desk as always….
