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Alabama finds itself watching Beryl just off the Southeast US coast while dealing with a strong upper ridge that should give us the warmest day of 2012 so far. The high at Birmingham and Tuscaloosa yesterday was 90 degrees while Anniston reached 91. I expect to see 93 or 94 for the high today. But probably many eyes will be watching Tropical Storm Beryl which was named late yesterday and is expected to bring windy conditions as well as some significant rain to the Southeast US coast Sunday and Monday. Central Alabama is not expected to see much effect of Beryl even though it will be progressing west to southwest over the next couple of days. It does not appear likely that Beryl will come much further west than South Central Georgia plus we will remain on the western or dry side of the storm system. The GFS and the ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement on the movement and position of Beryl over the next five days which enhances confidence in the forecast.
For us, the upper ridge will bring two very warm days to much of Central Alabama. I expect to see highs around 93 or 94 for today and Sunday. As I noted in earlier posts, the temperatures will be quite warm, but the heat is not expected to be enough to set a record. Records for the next couple of days are 97 for today and 98 for Sunday for Birmingham.
Beryl will move southwest and then west into South Central Georgia on Monday providing the Southeast US coast with a windy and wet Memorial Day. The storm should stall, weaken, and then begin moving back toward the east on Tuesday possibly regaining tropical storm status on Wednesday as it moves back into the Atlantic. We’ll be watching the progress of the system since any further westward movement would bring a bigger impact to our weather. With the current expectations of Beryl, the impact on our weather will be negligible with perhaps some clouds and scattered showers mainly eastern sections of the state.
As Beryl pulls away, we will see a slight reduction in the heat as the upper ridge dampens ahead of the next short wave. This will keep us in a pattern with daily chances for showers.
A short wave is expected to move out of the North Central US on Wednesday and Thursday and bring a better chance for rain to Central Alabama through Friday. The character of the rain will still be showers, so it won’t be a big rain event and some people could be missed altogether. But as the trough goes by, we should see some cooler and dryer air come into the Southeast US promising us a very nice weekend for next weekend.
Unfortunately for us, the cool down and dryer air is expected to be somewhat short-lived with the upper ridge returning strongly by June 9th. So it will be nice to enjoy a couple of days of lowered humidity and cooler temperatures before the heat sets in again.
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Enjoying a little time away from home in the travel trailer at Cheaha State Park. Lots of folks in for the Memorial Day weekend with the upper campground just about filled. Weather has been nice though the humidity was more noticeable yesterday. Cool morning to be up and out for an early morning stroll. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
