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Looks like a period of unsettled weather is ahead of us until a cold front moves through Central Alabama on Friday morning paving the way for a nice weekend.
For now we are dealing with two rain threats. The first contains several areas of showers mainly southwest of Tuscaloosa and new Montgomery. These showers are primarily the after effects of the storms which occurred last evening in Mississippi and Southwest Alabama. The showers are creating a cloud deck which will probably break later today, however, the clouds could hold our temperatures down into the upper 80s for night.
The main rain threat comes tonight with storms ahead of the cold front that will be moving across the Southeast US with an upper trough. Timing puts the front into Central Alabama primarily in the very late night hours tonight and early morning hours of Friday. While CAPE values remain substantial, the NAM and the RPM hint at diminished shower coverage probably because of the lose of heating. Still, there is a potential for strong to severe storms with the cold front. Models continue to develop rain and storms ahead of the front as it moves into Georgia on Friday.
SPC has a slight risk area from the Ohio River Valley across the Mid-South and into Southeast Texas which includes about the northwestern half of the State of Alabama. With helicity values quite low, the primary threat will be damaging wind along with some potential for marginally severe hail.
The front moves out Friday which means we will probably see improving weather and with some much drier and cooler air keeping highs in the lower 80s for a change. That nice weather with a good northwesterly flow aloft will continue Saturday but things will begin to warm up on Sunday with highs returning to the upper 80s.
The northwesterly flow aloft persists Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. While we will warm up that northwesterly flow will have to be watched with a number of small upper air impulses moving through that flow. While I think we will remain mainly dry because of a relative lack of moisture, we will need to mention small chances for showers each day. We get more under the upper ridge though it remains slightly to our west by Thursday so air mass showers remain in the forecast.
Looking further out into voodoo country, the GFS presents an interesting scenario with a deep trough along the East Coast edging into the Southeast US. This pattern could be somewhat unsettled and keep our weather a tad cooler with fairly high chances for showers each day along with reasonably good coverage of showers. A trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on the 15th hints at good rain chances, too. Perhaps some Gulf mischief, but let’s now go there just yet.
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James Spann is taking a couple of days off, so I will be producing the Weather Xtreme Videos through the weekend on a one-a-day schedule. Stay tuned to the Blog for additional updates as we watch the weather evolve today. Godspeed.
-Brian-
