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WARM IS THE WORD: Today should be the warmest day so far this year for most Alabama communities; we are projecting a high of 81 degrees today, which is ten degrees above the average high for April 1, and within five degrees of the record high for today, 86 set in 1974. We note that two days following that record of 86 on April 1, 1974, we had the largest outbreak of tornadoes on record in the nation; the superoutbreak. The good news is that nothing like this will happen this year. Tomorrow will be another sunny day, and even warmer with potential for some places to reach the mid 80s.
We are projecting a high of 83 tomorrow with a good supply of sunshine.
EASTER WEEKEND: Not much change in our overall thinking for the weekend. The big trough out west will lift northwest of Alabama as a negative tilt short wave Saturday, and will bring a band of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms to the state. The best instability is to the south, and the main dynamic lift will pass to the north, so for now the chance of a big severe weather issue looks very small. And, quite frankly, rain totals will be light, generally a quarter inch or less. Some communities south and east of Birmingham could miss the showers completely.
Having said that, Saturday is April 3, and you have to watch any system like this closely considering the time of year. When it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected, you know.
Sunday looks dry and warm with a partly sunny sky and a high around 80 degrees. Not a bad day for an Easter egg hunt.
NEXT WEEK: The general idea is the same. Warm and mostly dry Monday and Tuesday, although we might consider inserting some risk of isolated showers into the forecast since a decent amount of low level moisture will be in place. A mid-week cold front will bring a chance of showers and storms Wednesday, followed by colder air for the latter half of the week. Way to early to be specific with run to run inconsistencies, but there is still some risk of a late season freeze or frost setup late in the week; growers will need to pay attention to future forecasts.
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I will be on the road this morning… headed up to Centre in Cherokee County where I will be speaking at the Cherokee County Health and Rehab Center. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
