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Just received a note from NHC… based on Hurricane Hunter data, Gustav is a hurricane again with sustained winds of 75 mph.
SHORT TERM: No real change in our weekend forecast; only widely scattered showers through Labor Day with highs in the 90 to 93 degree range. No rain for the high school football games tonight; just a slight risk of a shower for the UAB and Auburn home openers tomorrow. NO rain for the Alabama/Clemson game…. the game is being played indoors.
GUSTAV: The model hokey pokey continues; the 12Z model set has adjusted a bit back to the left. Be sure to watch the Weather Xtreme video to see all of this, but some model highlights:
*The GFDL remains an outlier to the east; bringing Gustav to the Mississippi coast.
*The HWRF shows NO landfall in Louisiana; it stalls the hurricane just south of the Louisiana coast, followed by a bend to the southwest, toward the middle Texas coast
*The NOGAPS is an outlier to the west, showing landfall between Corpus Christi and Freeport.
*The ECMWF brings Gustav a point near Cameron, Louisiana (the southwest part of the state).
The key to the track is the strength of the high north of the hurricane. There is increasing confidence that Gustav will ultimately stop a northward component of motion near the coast, or just inland… with slow turn to the west possible. The GFS suggests Gustav will remain nearly stationary over Louisiana for a few days, which would mean some big time flooding over Mississippi if that is correct.
INLAND IMPACT: I should also note that confidence is increasing that the main inland impact of Gustav will be west of Alabama; places like Montgomery and Birmingham could very well be spared of major tree and power line damage if the current trends continue, and that is great news for us. The biggest inland impact, at this time, would seem to be over Mississippi, Arkansas, and of course, Louisiana.
TIMING: Still looks like landfall will come Monday night or Tuesday morning.
INTENSITY: No reason to think this won’t be a major hurricane within 48 hours, possibly reaching category four or five status due to favorable upper air winds and high oceanic heat content. There could be some weakening as it approaches the coast, but people on the coast need to prepare for a powerful hurricane.
EVACUATIONS: The Mobile County Commission has declared a local state of emergency, and the state of Alabama indicates that all I-65 lanes could be turned northbound this weekend. There are no mandatory evacuation orders for the Alabama coast at this time, however. We do note there are many reports of gas shortages in Mobile and Baldwin Counties.
It is likely that there will be major evacuations over the Mississippi coast, and the City of New Orleans could be evacuated as well. President Bush has declared an emergency exists in the State of Louisiana due to Gustav.
BOTTOM LINE: We are still early in the game, and nobody knows exactly Gustav will do at this time. The Gulf Coast remains at risk from Panama City, Florida to Corpus Christi, Texas. Lets adjust the highest landfall probability now to the area from Sabine Pass to Pascagoula, Mississippi. That is a slight jog to the west.
HANNA: This thing really looks good; model guidance and the NHC bring Hanna southwest in time, to a point over the Central or South Bahamas next week. Harsh upper air winds are forecast to develop in that area, and the system could weaken to a tropical storm for a while. The ECMWF continues to idea of moding Hanna through the Florida Straights, and then northward toward Fort Myers or Tampa Bay. Most likely, any impact from Hanna will remain east of Alabama.
OTHER TROPICAL NOTES: A good looking easterly wave is just west of the African coast; that will need to monitored for signs of development in coming days.
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CHILL PILL: As usual during very active weather, we tend to attract a very large audience here (we are at record page view levels in the last seven days). There will always be a few bad eggs and trolls, but we hope to keep open comments this weekend. If needed, we will go to moderation for a while. Our regulars are long time friends and well behaved; we ask that you do not post false information, personal attacks, or try to impersonate others. And, of course, no profanity. Thanks for your consideration… the great power of the blog format is the ability of everyone to become part of the process by making comments and asking questions.
We will have a Weather Xtreme video tomorrow and Sunday… Brian Peters or I will handle (I will cover if Brian heads to the coast, which is a real possibility). And, of course, there will be running updates through this entire event. We have eight meteorologists that post to the blog, including one Ph.D researcher (Dr. Tim Coleman)…. so you will find information here you won’t get anywhere else. Be sure and keep us in your RSS reader, or check in often for updates!
