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Many, many eyes are watching the tropics this morning where there is a great deal of action going on. Primary focus is on Gustav which has intensified rapidly this morning to become a major hurricane at Category 3 strength. I don’t think I emphasized this in the video as I was concentrating on the course more than the strength. And the warm water in the Gulf ahead of Gustav should help to maintain or increase the strength of this storm, so a Category 4 or 5 at some point over the next couple of days is certainly possible.
For the next couple of days looks for a continuation of warm weather with the possibility of an isolated storm or two, but I don’t think there will be many. We saw a few showers and at least one warning across North Alabama yesterday with the presence of a weak front which should just wash out.
Monday and Tuesday we’re likely to see the possibility of a few more showers as Gustav continues on a northwesterly course that should bring the center of the hurricane to the Central Louisiana coast early Tuesday morning. The wind will be kicking up a bit Monday and Tuesday as well as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the nearby Gustav.
The GFS is continuing to indicate a stall, but now it is after the storm makes landfall. The system will stall in Central Louisiana and then drift westward as it dissipates. As this happens, our weather should be improved with sunshine and only a small possibility for showers.
But there will be no time to think much about the demise of Gustav as attention quickly turns to Hanna. Hanna is still forecast to come westerly and then a bit southwest toward the Florida Straits and Cuba. The present NHC projections bring it close to the north central coast of Cuba on Thursday which is as far out as the official track runs. But that’s when things get interesting as the GFS takes Hanna up the spine of Florida and into Georgia where it catches hold of the strong westerlies and zips into the Canadian Maritime Provinces by Sunday. But there is a wrinkle. The European model suggest something considerably slower with Hanna still in the Florida Straits on September 9th. What a can of worms!!
Oh, and did I mention that there is a sizable disturbance that just came off the African coast which is showing positive signs of development and is also in an area where conditions appear favorable for development. This is the heart of the busy time of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The longer range projections by the GFS suggest a front around September 10 but a return to a ridge pattern at 372 hours or September 14th – probably all voodoo.
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I’ll be filling in for Ashley Brand this evening as well as taking steps to prepare for a road trip to the coast on Sunday. Thanks for staying tuned. Have a great weekend and God bless.
-Brian-
