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Let me say up front I am increasingly concerned about the steady stream of hype on weather events in recent years. Every time the weather gets hot in August, it becomes a “life threatening heat wave”. Spring flood events become “something like we have never seen before”. And, this hurricane, Gustav, in recent days has been described as “the storm of the century” and the “mother of all storms”. One national reported called it the “most powerful storm to ever move into the U.S.” All of this, of course, is not true. Maybe it is the constant 24 hour cable news cycle, hopes of politicians (wanting to save their constituents from a horrible tragedy), or the worldview of reporters, but I sure hope this trend doesn’t continue. We have always had hurricanes in the Gulf, hot weather in August, and floods in spring. This is not anything new, you know. I continue to advise that people don’t get their weather information from politicians or reporters. Nice people, but I don’t know of any that have training in atmospheric science.
And, for the lunatics that have turned this into a political issue, shame on them. Some of the quotes I have read are simply outrageous.
There are times when we do have very serious weather events that need strong words, but if every weather event gets hyped to the moon, nobody will listen when the “big one” does come along.
OK… enough of my cranky Monday morning rant. Let’s take a big deep breath, and look at everything this morning in a calm fashion…
GUSTAV: Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion. Yes, this is officially a major hurricane, and I totally agree with the evacuation orders for New Orleans. Seemed like it was well executed and orderly. But, this is not going to be another Katrina. The system has been dealing with an intrusion of dry air, southerly shear aloft, and cooler oceanic heat content since it moved off the Loop Current in the southern Gulf 36 hours ago. It will be going into the Louisiana coast this morning as a low end category three, most likely. The greatest threats will come from tornadoes in the spiral bands wrapping into the center, and flooding, since Gustav is expected to slow down once it gets inland over West Louisiana and East Texas.
THE ALABAMA COAST: Been watching Brian Peters and our crew on ABC 33/40 News this morning… they are having a rough ride down there; the peak wind gust at our Gulf Shores SKYCAM so far is 57 mph, and some scattered power outages have been reported in Mobile and Baldwin Counties. Water is now reported over the old Mobile Bay Causeway, and a number of tornado warnings have been issued this morning for our two coastal counties. The threat of tornadoes will continue through the day for the Alabama coastal region.
INLAND ALABAMA: Not much impact at all here in this part of Alabama from Gustav. Our weather will be breezy through tomorrow with cloudy periods, and a few passing showers. All of the serious wind and rain from Gustav will remain well to the south and west. There is an outside risk of isolated tornadoes from York to Demopolis south to Mobile, but even in that zone, the most significant threat will be over Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, Escambia, Monroe, Mobile, and Baldwin Counties. We note the Alabama Gulf Coast is under a tornado watch until 4:00 this afternoon.
OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK: Just a small risk of a shower Wednesday, then mostly dry on Thursday and Friday with afternoon highs around 90.
WHAT ABOUT HANNA? NHC brings Hanna into the Atlantic coast, near the Georgia/South Carolina border, Friday afternoon as a minimal hurricane. The system will then be caught up in the mid latitude westerlies, and move up to coastal New England over the weekend with lots of wind and rain. Alabama will be on the dry side of Hanna, and there should be no impact on our weather. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics on this one.
OTHER TROPICAL NOTES: Another good looking wave is out in the Central Atlantic; this one has a chance to becoming a tropical depression or storm in coming days; there is a split in model output on this one. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for more. A long way out there for now.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will try to record a show this morning featuring Brian Peters down on the Alabama Gulf Coast… we will let you know when it is available.
TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
We will keep the steady stream of information flowing here today on the blog… thanks to everyone for their work over the weekend… Bill Murray, J.B. Elliott, and the gang. Great work. And, I will go ahead and crank out another Weather Xtreme video this afternoon; it will be available by 3:30…
