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ALABAMA WEATHER STAYS CALM: Not much change in the overall thinking for Alabama for the next seven days… our weather stays relatively quiet, with the rain from Gustav remaining to the west, and rain from Hanna to the east. We could see a few scattered showers along the way, especially in the Friday/Saturday time frame, but widespread rain is not expected around here. Afternoon highs will remain generally between 87 and 90.
TO THE WEST: Isolated tornadoes remain possible today over West Mississippi, North Louisiana, and Arkansas thanks to our pal Gus. The heaviest rain will shift northward in coming days, in the direction of St. Louis and Chicago.
TO THE EAST: We have the tropical trio… Hanna, Ike, and Josephine. Lets take a look…
HANNA: This thing has been really torn apart by shearing and interaction with Hispanolia. Looks horrible on satellite images this morning, but the pressure has not risen, and it still has a good chance of becoming a hurricane during the next 24 to 48 hours as it is forced northward. Models have adjusted to the right, away from Florida, so our friends in Daytona Beach and Jacksonville can breathe easier. Most models take Hanna into the Atlantic coast between Charleston and Wilmington Friday night… the NHC track is similar, and the forecast is for Hanna to be a minimal hurricane at the time of landfall. We should note it could be stronger due to light winds aloft and the Gulf Stream water… and remember, the worst impact will be along and north of the circulation center on the Atlantic coast. Looks more and more like the Georgia coast is off the hook.
IKE: This one has a very nice satellite presentation with good outflow in all quadrants. Models, and the NHC track, take Ike to a point between Havanna and Nassau at the end of the weekend. We note the ECMWF has shifted a good bit, now showing Ike as an Atlantic coast threat instead of a Gulf coast threat. The ensembles do show a mean upper trough over the central/east U.S. next week, giving some credibility to the ECWMF idea of this being an Atlantic coast storm. Still too early to call, however. Let’s keep a close eye on it.
JOSEPHINE: This is the one in the far eastern Atlantic; it will move to the west/northwest with only modest strengthening due to shear and cooler ocean water (and some upwelling from Ike down the road). This one could recurve, or keep coming in this direction for a possible threat to the Atlantic coast down the road.
VOODOO LAND: Still looking for the first good cold front of the fall season, but not finding it on the GFS this morning. Temperatures will remain pretty warm through mid-month.
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