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Looks like we will need to hit the chance of showers a little harder tomorrow and Friday as Gustav moves north toward the Midwest, and a shear axis extending south from that system moves into Alabama. No, this won’t be a big rain event, but just be aware that a few periods of rain are looking more likely tomorrow and Friday. And, Saturday too, if the 12Z GFS is correct. We will also need to adjust highs downward a bit due to the clouds and showers; highs will be generally in the mid 80s.
Sunday looks rain-free statewide, and the dry weather will likely continue into early next week as a dry airmass settles into Alabama from the north.
TO THE WEST: Yet another tornado watch is up for far West Mississippi, and much of Louisiana until the evening hours as Gustav continues to spin away; the circulation center is between Texarkana and Tulsa. Gustav will finally lift to the north tomorrow, the heavier rain aimed at places like St. Louis and Chicago.
TROPICAL TRIO: The 12Z models continue to adjust to the right on Hanna; looks now like the highest probability of landfall will be on the North Carolina coast late Friday night or Saturday night. The impact on the Georgia and Florida coastline looks minimal now, although the surf will be very rough, and there will be dangerous riptides. And, with the adjustment to the east, much of South Carolina will be on the dry side of Hanna, although it will be wet and windy along the immediate coast, especially from Charleston north.
Hanna is forecast to be a minimal hurricane at the time it moves into the North Carolina coast, but as it moves northeast roughly along the coastline, you have to figure there will be lots of wind, rain, downed trees, and power outages all the way to New England over the weekend.
IKE: We now have both the GFS and the ECMWF agreeing that Ike will not enter the Gulf of Mexico. Can’t say that is carved in stone, but it looks more and more like an Atlantic coast threat next week. The ECMWF has Ike close to the coast of North Carolina in about 7 to 8 days, while the GFS moves Ike northward with no U.S. landfall.
JOSEPHINE: This one, in the far eastern Atlantic, will move steadily to the northwest, most likely remaining a tropical storm for the next five days. Too early to determine if this will be a problem for the Atlantic coast of the U.S. This one in all probability won’t be a Gulf of Mexico storm.
I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics associated with this discussion and additional information on the active tropical weather situation.
VOODOO LAND: Some hint in the 12Z GFS of a little shot of Polar air toward the latter half of next week following a cold front passage. We will see…
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Most of you know I work in Children’s Ministry as a “side job”… “Lunch With Mr. James” is cranking up; I eat lunch with many of our kids from Kids Extreme 2:52 through the year, and today I was in the lunchroom at Greystone Elementary. I had a great time… and looking forward to the many lunchroom visits ahead. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
