ALABAMA DROUGHT ROLLS ALONG: Exceptional drought conditions continue across Alabama. This will be the third year on record with no measurable rain during the month of October for Birmingham… it also happened in 1901 and 1924.
Today will be the 43rd consecutive day without rain for Birmingham; the record streak is 52 days set in 1924.
This will be the warmest October on record as well; we will have the final stats early tomorrow. We are forecasting a high of 88 degrees today; if they verifies it will beat the old October 31 record high of 87, set in 1984.
About 20 percent of Halloweens in Birmingham have had highs in the 80s since 1900… here is the top 10 highs for October 31:
87 (1984)
86 (1937)
85 (1922)
85 (1950)
85 (1961)
85 (1998)
85 (2000)
84 (1919)
84 (1935)
83 (1974)
REST OF THE WEEK: Moisture levels will slowly increase Wednesday and Thursday, and with the approach of a cold front somebody somewhere might see a brief shower Thursday, but considering the lack of soil moisture, we will keep the forecast dry for now. The big change comes on Friday with the high will drop into the 70s with a cool north breeze.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Sunny pleasant days, clear chilly nights. Highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: For round one of the high school playoff games Friday night, the weather will be clear and very cool with temperatures falling into the 50s. You will need a jacket.
Auburn will host Vanderbilt Saturday (11a CT kickoff)… it will be a perfect day for football with a sunny sky… temperatures will climb from 68 at kickoff, to near 72 by the fourth quarter.
Alabama will be on the road; they play LSU Saturday night (7p CT kickoff)… the sky will be clear with temperatures falling through the 60s. A great night for football.
NEXT WEEK: There is hope for a decent rain event toward mid-week as suggested by the European model (ECMWF)…
LONG RANGE: A pattern flip seems likely by mid-November, which will open the door for more frequent rain producing systems. The ECMWF ensemble hints at potential for over 5 inches of rain for Birmingham from mid-November to mid-December…
There is no skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days, but there is skill at pattern recognition, and this is encouraging. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights through the weekend from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach. Highs around 80 through Thursday, and in the 70s Friday and over the weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.
TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.
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I have a weather program today at Mountain Brook Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
