As we go through time, the models will have predicted every possible track for Ike I believe.
The afternoon run o fthe GFS was very plausible, with a track through the Keys and a recurvature over the Florida Peninsula, a la Hurricane Donna from 1960.
But the early output from the models’ evening run shows a definite shift in track to the central Gulf. Still two schools of though as to how it gets there: over Cuba which would weaken it, or a slightly more northerly track that would carry it through the Florida Straits, over the Keys and into the southeastern Gulf. This represents an increased threat to the Central Gulf Coast.
Needless to say, residents all along the Southeast Coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and the Gulf of Mexico Coast have to pay close attention to the potential track of Hurricane Ike through the weekend and into next week.
