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The tropics continue to be our main focus but the tropics are a changing! In fact, one storm is going – that’s Hanna – one is gone – that’s Josephine – and one is a BIG concern.
Hanna came ashore overnight/early this morning in the vicinity of Cape Fear, North Carolina, as a tropical storm. And as Hanna is picked up by the strong southwesterly flow ahead of the Central US trough, she should move briskly toward the northeast along the US coastline with watches and warnings from North Carolina to New England. She should be out of the US by Sunday.
And Josephine has dissipated in the Central Atlantic, though there appears to still be some cloudiness associated with it still remaining. The NHC has ended advisories on Josephine.
So that leaves us with Ike. Ike is a formidable storm with 115 mph wind and Category 3 status. And everyone from the southern Bahamas to the northern Gulf are keeping an eye on his future course. Ike has been dealing with some shear but the storm presentation on satellite views looks pretty good. The shear is likely to persist some today keeping Ike’s intensity in check. The ridge to the north of Ike, between Ike and Hanna, should be strong enough to force Ike slightly south of a west course posing a big threat to the northern coast of Cuba. A couple of models take Ike over land, so that may have an impact on his future intensity unless the center can stay just offshore. But it is now looking more and more that Ike could affect the northern Gulf coast especially the area to the east of Mobile. There are way too many uncertainties to try to pinpoint a land fall location. In fact, the European model take Ike all the way to Texas – I think that is not going to occur. But as the ridge now north of Ike begins to erode, Ike should gradually turn northward after entering the Gulf of Mexico. A strong trough moving across the north central US could help to nudge Ike on a more northeasterly course later this week. This is a nail biting situation that will bear watching for much of the Southeast US.
In the meantime, a bit of a convergence zone resulting from the remnants of Gustav and the passing of Hanna is helping to set of showers across Central Alabama. This feature should move eastward today and tonight shifting the better threat of scattered showers to the east and southeast away from Birmingham. I noted in the video that about a tenth of an inch was possible, but I need to retract that since my gauge is now approaching a three-quarters of an inch. So much for that forecast. But not too many spots are going to see that kind of rain. In fact the latest radar indicated much of the rain confined to Shelby County for the moment with only a few showers throughout much of the rest of Alabama.
Our weather will be slightly drier Sunday and Monday, but as we get to midweek our weather will depend heavily on Ike an his future track. And Ike will be the feature we will be watching for much of the next week. Temperatures will be close to seasonal values with lows in the upper 60s and highs in the upper 80s for the most part.
Voodoo country shows a rather benign pattern AFTER we get Ike out of here.
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I hope you have a great Saturday. Thanks for staying tuned into the Weather Xtreme Video and our weather Blog. God bless.
-Brian-
