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Ike has been a storm that has not played well with forecasters, computer models, and climatology. Really hard to find a good analog now, so the storm will remain a mystery until it comes off Cuba, which will take quite a toll on the storm. Ike will most likely be a tropical storm tomorrow when it finally moves back over water, and it will be interesting to see what kind of structure we have after being over the island for a little over 36 hours.
INTENSITY: Conditions seem very favorable for Ike to get his act together again over the Gulf with high SST values and light winds aloft, so strengthening is likely; Ike is expected to ramp up to category three status again before landfall.
TRACK: I like the NHC idea; instead of adjusting their track with every set of computer model output, they have a steady state track in the direction of the Sabine Pass. The 00Z GFS took a hard right, and for now is considered an outlier (the NHC discounted this solution for now). And, the 06Z GFS (just in) does not show the hard turn, and brings it to near Galveston on Tuesday of next week (yep, 8 days out!).
I said this in recent days, and will say it again; it is hard for a hurricane north of 25N to make it all the way to Texas in September and October. Possible, but not likely, due to the interaction of the strengthening mid-latitude westerlies that are dropping south with the arrival of fall. Troughs embedded in the jet tend to pick up hurricanes, and turn them north, and then northeast with an acceleration in forward motion.
You have to figure Ike will slow down in the Northwest Gulf late this week, and decide if he will keep headed toward Galveston, or turn north toward the Louisiana coast.
I would suggest at this point the highest landfall probabilities are from Galveston to Morgan City sometime early in the weekend. But, you know what I am about to say, nobody knows at this point where the final destination of Ike will be. We continue to wait and watch; be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the latest graphics and model output.
THE ALABAMA STORY: A good chance we reach the low 90s today with only a small risk of a shower. A few scattered showers and storms are possible tomorrow with a weak front approaching from the north, and we will probably need to mention the chance of a few scattered showers each day for the rest of the week. However, if Ike blows up into a major hurricane again over the Gulf, we will most likely be in the subsidence ring (sinking air) on the periphery of the system, which could stop showers from developing. After today, highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range.
VOODOO LAND: Is there a chance the moisture associated with Ike can move into Alabama next week from the west? Certainly; that is a possibility we can’t ignore for early next week.
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J.B. will keep you updated on Ike today; my next discussion and Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30… enjoy the day!
