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THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: We have a few showers and storms on radar down to the south, in a broad area from Calera to Roanoke. Those will hang around in scattered spots until sundown; some of the storms are rather strong and could produce gusty winds for a brief time.
We expect a general increase in the number of scattered showers and storms tomorrow as a surface front approaches from the north. It won’t rain everywhere, and it won’t rain all day, but a few neighborhoods could see a decent downpour or two during the day.
Then, a rather moist airmass stays in place for the rest of the week, so we will maintain a chance of showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis through Friday, with afternoon highs in the 86 to 89 degree range. The latest model data suggests the showers will thin out over the weekend, with highs rising back into the low 90s by Saturday and Sunday. It can be (and usually is) hot in September, you know.
IKE TRENDS SOUTH: Hurricane Ike is a storm that simply wants to be as far south as possible. My forecast thoughts, the NHC track, and model output have all been too far north. Because of the south track, the upper troughs in the mid-latitude westerlies are bypassing Ike… and will certainly continue to do so as long as it is south of 25N.
The 12Z GFS, along with the GFDL and the HWRF, have shifted south (remember, the GFDL and the HWRF use boundary layer initialization from the GFS, so they tend to trend in the same direction). The GFS now takes Ike into the Texas coast between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. The GFDL and the HWRF suggest trouble for Galveston and Houston.
Other models still slow Ike down, with a turn north toward the western Louisiana coast, and this solution can’t be ignored due to active troughs in the jet over the U.S.
But, with Ike’s history of liking the south track, we have to wonder if the threat to the Texas coast is increasing. It is still simply too early to determine the location of Ike’s landfall, and the intensity of the storm at the time of landfall. No doubt it should recover nicely in coming days over the warm Gulf of Mexico with light winds aloft; most models show Ike as a major hurricane as it approaches the coast.
IMPACT ON ALABAMA? If Ike does move into the Texas coast; it will be forced northward, with a turn to the northeast early next week as it gets hung up in the westerlies. This could mean a decent rain event for Alabama at some point during the first half of next week. We will see.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… J.B. will keep you updated on the progress of Ike this afternoon and tonight…
